11840 Woodland Dr · Lennon, MI 48449

$255,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,080 sqft · SingleFamily · 18 Days on market

Built 1973 0.35 ac lot $83/sqft · 14% below area Est $297k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Corner lot charm with all the space you've been searching for! Do not miss this cute, clean ranch perfectly positioned in a quiet and quaint subdivision - surrounded by peaceful farmland yet just minutes from convenient access to I-69 for an easy commute! Offering over 1,500 square feet, this well-maintained home features 3 spacious bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, along with the ease of first-floor laundry for everyday convenience. The heart of the home is the bright, fresh kitchen with included appliances, flowing effortlessly into comfortable living spaces designed for both relaxing and entertaining. One of the standout features is the 17x16 four seasons room, with windows all around; allowing in a flood of natural light, a cozy gas stove, and brand new carpet - creating the perfect spot to enjoy every Michigan season in comfort. Step outside to a fully fenced backyard with a concrete patio, ideal for gatherings, pets, or simply unwinding at the end of the day. The property also includes an attached 2.5-car garage and an additional shed for extra storage. Downstairs, you'll find a full, partially finished basement with built-ins and abundant storage space - offering flexibility for hobbies or a blank canvas to create additional living space. Located within the Durand School District, this move-in ready home checks all the boxes for space, comfort, and location. Homes like this don't last - schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Four seasons room
• Concrete patio
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• FOUR SEASONS ROOM
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• CONCRETE PATIO
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• DURAND SCHOOL DISTRICT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-385 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (26.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (44.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (44.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#510 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Durand Area Schools (rural): math 17% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #395 of 540 in MI (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Robert Kerr School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #923 of 1,397 statewide, top 69%, 348 students, 63% FRL); Durand Middle School (math 16% / reading 38%, grade F, #372 of 493 statewide, top 77%, 276 students, 55% FRL); Durand Area High School (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #372 of 713 statewide, top 56%, 425 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 74 units permitted in Shiawassee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Shiawassee County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $255k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $142,414 (44.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.48%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 14.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $297,223
• List price: $255,000
• Delta: -14.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $114,202
• Equity at exit: $229,724

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.98×
• Total profit: $355,344
• Equity at exit: $495,409

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48449

• Home prices YoY: 26.4%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 14.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,424 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $803/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $-385

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,912

Max offer price $186,924

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-241	-5% $-313	+0% $-385	+5% $-458	+10% $-530
Rent	-10% $-498	-5% $-442	+0% $-385	+5% $-329	+10% $-273
Rate	-1.0pp $-257	-0.5pp $-321	base $-385	+0.5pp $-451	+1.0pp $-519

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 1439-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1473 chars)

   Corner lot charm with all the space you’ve been searching for! Do not miss this cute, clean ranch perfectly positioned in a quiet and quaint subdivision—surrounded by peaceful farmland yet just minutes from convenient access to I-69 for an easy commute! Offering over 1,500 square feet, this well-maintained home features 3 spacious bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, along with the ease of first-floor laundry for everyday convenience. The heart of the home is the bright, fresh kitchen with included appliances, flowing effortlessly into comfortable living spaces designed for both relaxing and entertaining. One of the standout features is the 17x16 four seasons room, with windows all around; allowing in a flood of natural light, a cozy gas stove, and brand new carpet—creating the perfect spot to enjoy every Michigan season in comfort. Step outside to a fully fenced backyard with a concrete patio, ideal for gatherings, pets, or simply unwinding at the end of the day. The property also includes an attached 2.5-car garage and an additional shed for extra storage. Downstairs, you’ll find a full, partially finished basement with built-ins and abundant storage space—offering flexibility for hobbies or a blank canvas to create additional living space. Located within the Durand School District, this move-in ready home checks all the boxes for space, comfort, and location. Homes like this don’t last—schedule your showing today!

2. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 1473-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1473 chars)

   Corner lot charm with all the space you’ve been searching for! Do not miss this cute, clean ranch perfectly positioned in a quiet and quaint subdivision—surrounded by peaceful farmland yet just minutes from convenient access to I-69 for an easy commute! Offering over 1,500 square feet, this well-maintained home features 3 spacious bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, along with the ease of first-floor laundry for everyday convenience. The heart of the home is the bright, fresh kitchen with included appliances, flowing effortlessly into comfortable living spaces designed for both relaxing and entertaining. One of the standout features is the 17x16 four seasons room, with windows all around; allowing in a flood of natural light, a cozy gas stove, and brand new carpet—creating the perfect spot to enjoy every Michigan season in comfort. Step outside to a fully fenced backyard with a concrete patio, ideal for gatherings, pets, or simply unwinding at the end of the day. The property also includes an attached 2.5-car garage and an additional shed for extra storage. Downstairs, you’ll find a full, partially finished basement with built-ins and abundant storage space—offering flexibility for hobbies or a blank canvas to create additional living space. Located within the Durand School District, this move-in ready home checks all the boxes for space, comfort, and location. Homes like this don’t last—schedule your showing today!

3. 2026-04-16
   listed $255,000 Active 1439-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1473 chars)

   Corner lot charm with all the space you’ve been searching for! Do not miss this cute, clean ranch perfectly positioned in a quiet and quaint subdivision—surrounded by peaceful farmland yet just minutes from convenient access to I-69 for an easy commute! Offering over 1,500 square feet, this well-maintained home features 3 spacious bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, along with the ease of first-floor laundry for everyday convenience. The heart of the home is the bright, fresh kitchen with included appliances, flowing effortlessly into comfortable living spaces designed for both relaxing and entertaining. One of the standout features is the 17x16 four seasons room, with windows all around; allowing in a flood of natural light, a cozy gas stove, and brand new carpet—creating the perfect spot to enjoy every Michigan season in comfort. Step outside to a fully fenced backyard with a concrete patio, ideal for gatherings, pets, or simply unwinding at the end of the day. The property also includes an attached 2.5-car garage and an additional shed for extra storage. Downstairs, you’ll find a full, partially finished basement with built-ins and abundant storage space—offering flexibility for hobbies or a blank canvas to create additional living space. Located within the Durand School District, this move-in ready home checks all the boxes for space, comfort, and location. Homes like this don’t last—schedule your showing today!

4. 2026-04-16
   listed $255,000 Active 1473-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1473 chars)

   Corner lot charm with all the space you’ve been searching for! Do not miss this cute, clean ranch perfectly positioned in a quiet and quaint subdivision—surrounded by peaceful farmland yet just minutes from convenient access to I-69 for an easy commute! Offering over 1,500 square feet, this well-maintained home features 3 spacious bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, along with the ease of first-floor laundry for everyday convenience. The heart of the home is the bright, fresh kitchen with included appliances, flowing effortlessly into comfortable living spaces designed for both relaxing and entertaining. One of the standout features is the 17x16 four seasons room, with windows all around; allowing in a flood of natural light, a cozy gas stove, and brand new carpet—creating the perfect spot to enjoy every Michigan season in comfort. Step outside to a fully fenced backyard with a concrete patio, ideal for gatherings, pets, or simply unwinding at the end of the day. The property also includes an attached 2.5-car garage and an additional shed for extra storage. Downstairs, you’ll find a full, partially finished basement with built-ins and abundant storage space—offering flexibility for hobbies or a blank canvas to create additional living space. Located within the Durand School District, this move-in ready home checks all the boxes for space, comfort, and location. Homes like this don’t last—schedule your showing today!

5. 2000-06-20
   soldstatus $130,000
6. 2000-05-08
   listed $132,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $803 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,365 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,562/yr (+$130/mo · 194.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,090
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$803
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,367
• − Management: −$1,367
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$9,425
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,262
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,362/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Durand Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2612330
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $45,999
• Composite: 23.67/100
• National rank: #7838
• State rank: #395 of 540 in MI

Livability — Lennon

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #510
• US rank: #15198

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,760

Population outlook (Shiawassee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 64,238 people
• By 2030: 61,434 · -4.4%
• By 2040: 55,054 · -14.3%
• By 2050: 48,426 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 35,995 · -44.0%
• By 2100: 26,678 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shiawassee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 37.7% · R 60.8% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.9 2016: R+19.6 2012: D+3.7 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 76.59%
• Current HPI: 367.19
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+91.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-05 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-16 Listed $255,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-16 Listed $255,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2000-06-20 Sold (MLS) $130,000 REALCOMP
• 2000-05-08 Listed $132,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $803 · -62.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.