439 Hayground Rd

Bridgehampton, NY 11976

$2,250,000A-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,728 sqft · Built 1720 · SingleFamily · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $51,965/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$11,799
• Tax + insurance: −$1,666
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$10,913
• Net cashflow: $27,587/mo
• Annual: $331,046/yr
• Cap rate: 21.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.55%
• DSCR: 3.34
• 1% rule: 2.31%
• Cash to close: $630,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $2.25M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $28k ($331k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($52k rent vs $2.25M).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($2.22M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.22M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $210k of equity ($16k loan paydown + $194k appreciation (8.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#874 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Southampton Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #293 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southampton High School (math 98%, 595 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 30% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1720 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+30.1%/yr); 52 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (8.6% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $630k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$336k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $51,965/mo this rent would consume 346% of the median local household income ($180k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1720 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.