439 Hayground Rd · Bridgehampton, NY 11976

$2,250,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,728 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1720 0.95 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Historic Opportunity This residence in Water Mill was constructed circa 1720, prior to the inception of the United States of America, as one of the original farmhouses sitting on hundreds of acres on the East End. Available for the first time in more than thirty years, it is ready for the special buyer who will breathe life into this amazing property for its next 300 years of existence. Being sold with the condition of it being landmarked, it offers a great template for a creative hand to infuse modern amenities within its rustic character. Possibilities include obtaining status as a guest house and / or being granted a historic credit for the creation of a landmark easement. This one-acre

Key facts

• Historic credit
• Landmarked property
• Original farmhouse

Tags

• LANDMARKED PROPERTY
• ORIGINAL FARMHOUSE
• RUSTIC CHARACTER
• HISTORIC CREDIT
• LARGE RESIDENCE POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $2.25M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $28k ($331k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($52k rent vs $2.25M).
• Recommended offer: $2.22M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#874 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Southampton Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #293 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southampton High School (math 98%, 595 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 30% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+30.1%/yr); 52 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $51,965/mo this rent would consume 346% of the median local household income ($180k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $210k of equity ($16k loan paydown + $194k appreciation (8.6% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (8.6% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $630k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$336k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($2.22M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1720 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,216,250 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1720 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.55%
• DSCR: 3.34
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.63% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 68.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.84×
• Total profit: $3,049,683
• Equity at exit: $1,806,875

10-year hold

• IRR: 64.7%
• Equity multiple: 14.08×
• Total profit: $8,241,536
• Equity at exit: $3,683,830

Cash invested: $630,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11976

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Rents YoY: 30.1%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $51,965 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$11,799
• Tax from tax record: −$728 /mo · $8,741/yr
• Insurance: −$938
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$10,913
• Net cashflow: $27,587

Break-even live

Break-even rent $17,045

Max offer price $2,250,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $28,861	-5% $28,224	+0% $27,587	+5% $26,950	+10% $26,314
Rent	-10% $23,482	-5% $25,535	+0% $27,587	+5% $29,640	+10% $31,692
Rate	-1.0pp $28,720	-0.5pp $28,159	base $27,587	+0.5pp $27,004	+1.0pp $26,411

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $562,500
• Closing costs: $67,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2024-10-15
   status Pending
2. 2024-09-24
   listed $2,250,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,741 · $728/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $23,383 · $1,949/mo
• Expected delta: +$14,642/yr (+$1,220/mo · 167.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $623,580
• − Mortgage interest: −$126,035
• − Property taxes: −$8,741
• − Insurance: −$11,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$49,886
• − Management: −$49,886
• − Depreciation: −$65,455
• Taxable income: $312,327
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$74,958
• After-tax cash flow: $256,088/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $85,977
• Composite: 47.9/100
• National rank: #2213
• State rank: #293 of 590 in NY

Livability — Bridgehampton

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #874
• US rank: #16891

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bridgehampton, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 725
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 2,952
• Household income: $180,250
• Rent vs Own: 6.8% rent · 93.2% own

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Scotch-Irish 7% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.63%
• Current HPI: 540.0967
• Rent YoY: ▲ 30.05%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2024-10-15 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-24 Listed $2,250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2022): $8,741 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.