14 Harris Rd

Chestertown, NY 12815

$124,900C-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Built 1989 · Manufactured · Active · 252 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,045/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax + insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $29/mo
• Annual: $348/yr
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.00%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $34,972

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $29 ($348/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (16.3% below list).
• It's been on market 252 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $104k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,052 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, cost of living B; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• North Warren Central School District (rural): math 48% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #352 of 590 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 1.3% in Chestertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 252 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.