14 Harris Rd · Chestertown, NY 12815

$124,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Manufactured public records · 252 Days on market

Built 1989 4.49 ac lot $110/sqft · 65% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Manufactured ranch (not tied down) on 5 nice country acres. Garage with carport. Needs a little tlc but great starter. 800 feet of road frontage. Triangular lot across Hayesburg Road included as well (208'RF x 461 x 366 +-. Woodstove in first room not included. Well and septic. Nice yard! Minutes from Brant Lake.

Key facts

• Well and septic
• Country acres
• Road frontage

Tags

• COUNTRY ACRES
• ROAD FRONTAGE
• TRIANGULAR LOT
• WOODSTOVE
• WELL AND SEPTIC
• NICE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $29 ($348/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $104k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 1.3% in Chestertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,052 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, cost of living B; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• North Warren Central School District (rural): math 48% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #352 of 590 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 252 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $104,480 (16.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 252 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.00%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $353,931
• List price: $124,900
• Delta: -64.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $69,848
• Equity at exit: $112,520

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.84×
• Total profit: $204,186
• Equity at exit: $242,653

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12815

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,045 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,072/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,008

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 252 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 251 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 250 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 249 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 247 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $124,900 Active 246 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Active 243 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,900 Active 242 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $124,900 Active 241 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,900 Active 240 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $124,900 Active 237 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,900 Active 236 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,900 Active 235 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 234 DOM
15. 2025-12-15
    status Active 321-char remark

    Show marketing remark (321 chars)

    Manufactured ranch (not tied down) on 5 nice country acres. Garage with carport. Needs a little tlc but great starter. 800 feet of road frontage. Triangular lot across Hayesburg Road included as well (208'RF x 461 x 366 +-. Woodstove in first room not included. Well and septic. Nice yard! Minutes from Brant Lake.

16. 2025-11-16
    historical Contingent 321-char remark

    Show marketing remark (321 chars)

    Manufactured ranch (not tied down) on 5 nice country acres. Garage with carport. Needs a little tlc but great starter. 800 feet of road frontage. Triangular lot across Hayesburg Road included as well (208'RF x 461 x 366 +-. Woodstove in first room not included. Well and septic. Nice yard! Minutes from Brant Lake.

17. 2025-11-16
    status Pending 321-char remark

    Show marketing remark (321 chars)

    Manufactured ranch (not tied down) on 5 nice country acres. Garage with carport. Needs a little tlc but great starter. 800 feet of road frontage. Triangular lot across Hayesburg Road included as well (208'RF x 461 x 366 +-. Woodstove in first room not included. Well and septic. Nice yard! Minutes from Brant Lake.

18. 2025-11-04
    price $124,900 321-char remark

    Show marketing remark (321 chars)

    Manufactured ranch (not tied down) on 5 nice country acres. Garage with carport. Needs a little tlc but great starter. 800 feet of road frontage. Triangular lot across Hayesburg Road included as well (208'RF x 461 x 366 +-. Woodstove in first room not included. Well and septic. Nice yard! Minutes from Brant Lake.

19. 2025-10-06
    listed $129,900 Active 321-char remark

    Show marketing remark (321 chars)

    Manufactured ranch (not tied down) on 5 nice country acres. Garage with carport. Needs a little tlc but great starter. 800 feet of road frontage. Triangular lot across Hayesburg Road included as well (208'RF x 461 x 366 +-. Woodstove in first room not included. Well and septic. Nice yard! Minutes from Brant Lake.

20. 2017-05-04
    soldstatus $538,500
21. 2006-09-11
    soldstatus $119,000
22. 2006-09-08
    soldstatus $119,000 252-char remark

    Show marketing remark (252 chars)

    THIS PROPERTY IS MORTGAGABLE. Serene, peaceful and full of wildlife in its beautiful yard, with no neighbors in sight. This home has been renovated and updated along the way. You must take a peek, you'll be surprised it is a mobile home with its addtio

23. 2006-01-01
    listed $119,000 252-char remark

    Show marketing remark (252 chars)

    THIS PROPERTY IS MORTGAGABLE. Serene, peaceful and full of wildlife in its beautiful yard, with no neighbors in sight. This home has been renovated and updated along the way. You must take a peek, you'll be surprised it is a mobile home with its addtio

24. 1999-11-13
    historical
25. 1998-11-18
    listed $79,000
26. 1997-12-24
    historical
27. 1997-09-04
    listed $59,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,072 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,591 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$519/yr (+$43/mo · 48.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,538
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$1,072
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,003
• − Management: −$1,003
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable loss: −$1,795
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$431
• After-tax cash flow: $779/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Warren Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3616960
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,309
• Composite: 44.32/100
• National rank: #2829
• State rank: #352 of 590 in NY

Livability — Chestertown

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1052
• US rank: #20860

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime F Employment C Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 999

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,372 people
• By 2030: 60,491 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 55,616 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 50,437 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 40,843 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 31,159 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+10.6 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.51%
• Current HPI: 391.0336
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+108.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-15 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2025-11-16 Contingent — Global MLS
• 2025-11-16 Pending — Global MLS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $124,900 Global MLS
• 2025-10-06 Listed $129,900 Global MLS
• 2017-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $538,500 Public Records
• 2006-09-11 Sold (Public Records) $119,000 Public Records
• 2006-09-08 Sold (MLS) $119,000 Global MLS
• 2006-01-01 Listed $119,000 Global MLS
• 1999-11-13 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 1998-11-18 Listed $79,000 Global MLS
• 1997-12-24 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 1997-09-04 Listed $59,900 Global MLS

Property tax history

+9.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,072 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.