707 Tarbell Hill Rd

Port Henry, NY 12960

$169,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,458 sqft · Built 2003 · Manufactured · Pending · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,277/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$288
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $-170/mo
• Annual: $-2,043/yr
• Cap rate: 5.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.29%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $47,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-170 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $140k (17.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (24.8% below list).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $128k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#226 in NY, #3,576 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Moriah Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #445 of 590 in NY (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Moriah Elementary School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,277 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 385 students, 47% FRL); Moriah Junior-Senior High School (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #1,007 of 1,100 statewide, top 93%, 316 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $170k implies a 466% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.7% in Port Henry — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.