707 Tarbell Hill Rd · Port Henry, NY 12960

$169,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,458 sqft · Manufactured public records · 13 Days on market

Built 2003 1.02 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large 3 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home situated on 1.02 acres. Close to amenities such as schools, shopping, employment and education. Cash offers only

Key facts

• Large front deck
• Newer storage shed
• 1.02 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE FRONT DECK
• NEWER STORAGE SHED
• BEAUTIFUL OPEN YARD SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fuel tank(s) on site

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street paved parking for 4 vehicles
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Updated/remodeled; Slab foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Built on slab foundation
• Exterior features: Pressure-treated deck; Rear porch; Front porch; Paved driveway; Shed(s); Landscaped grounds; Level lot with road frontage, wooded areas and views

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Microwave; Range / Oven; Range hood; Refrigerator; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Window cooling units
• Interior features: Paddle fan; Vaulted ceilings; Aluminum frame windows; 8 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-170 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $140k (17.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (24.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.7% in Port Henry — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#226 in NY, #3,576 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Moriah Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #445 of 590 in NY (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Moriah Elementary School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,277 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 385 students, 47% FRL); Moriah Junior-Senior High School (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #1,007 of 1,100 statewide, top 93%, 316 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $170k implies a 466% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $127,744 (24.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.29%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.33% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $41,606
• Equity at exit: $110,393

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.73×
• Total profit: $130,089
• Equity at exit: $203,364

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12960

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,277 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$218 /mo · $2,612/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $-170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,493

Max offer price $139,827

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-74	-5% $-122	+0% $-170	+5% $-218	+10% $-266
Rent	-10% $-271	-5% $-221	+0% $-170	+5% $-120	+10% $-69
Rate	-1.0pp $-85	-0.5pp $-127	base $-170	+0.5pp $-214	+1.0pp $-259

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $169,900 Pending 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $169,900 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $169,900 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $169,900 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-05-21
   status Active
6. 2026-05-20
   listed $169,900 Active
7. 2026-05-20
   historical
8. 2022-12-23
   historical
9. 2022-06-26
   historical
10. 2022-06-14
    listed $79,900
11. 2020-12-10
    soldstatus $30,000 154-char remark

    Show marketing remark (154 chars)

    Large 3 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home situated on 1.02 acres. Close to amenities such as schools, shopping, employment and education. Cash offers only

12. 2020-10-13
    soldstatus $82,472
13. 2020-07-04
    historical
14. 2020-06-25
    listed $34,900 154-char remark

    Show marketing remark (154 chars)

    Large 3 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home situated on 1.02 acres. Close to amenities such as schools, shopping, employment and education. Cash offers only

15. 2019-07-04
    listed $47,000
16. 2011-07-03
    historical
17. 2010-07-03
    listed $99,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,612 · $218/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,742 · $228/mo
• Expected delta: +$130/yr (+$11/mo · 5.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,329
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$2,612
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,226
• − Management: −$1,226
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$5,044
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,211
• After-tax cash flow: $-832/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moriah Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619830
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,940
• Composite: 39.55/100
• National rank: #3937
• State rank: #445 of 590 in NY

Livability — Port Henry

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #226
• US rank: #3576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 995

Population outlook (Essex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,758 people
• By 2030: 35,697 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 32,697 · -11.0%
• By 2050: 29,248 · -20.4%
• By 2075: 22,641 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 16,602 · -54.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 21% Slovak 12% Romanian 8%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Essex

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.2% · R 49.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 13.3pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+5.0 2016: R+3.4 2012: D+15.0 2008: D+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.33%
• Current HPI: 340.4974
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+71.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2026-05-20 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2026-05-20 Listed $169,900 Global MLS
• 2022-12-23 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2022-06-26 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2022-06-14 Listed $79,900 Global MLS
• 2020-12-10 Sold (MLS) $30,000 Global MLS
• 2020-10-13 Sold (Public Records) $82,472 Public Records
• 2020-07-04 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2020-06-25 Listed $34,900 Global MLS
• 2019-07-04 Listed $47,000 Global MLS
• 2011-07-03 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2010-07-03 Listed $99,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

-5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,612 · -24.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.