912 Carriage Hill Dr

Yakima, WA 98908

$380,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,152 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,739/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,993
• Tax + insurance: −$473
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$575
• Net cashflow: $-301/mo
• Annual: $-3,617/yr
• Cap rate: 5.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.40%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $106,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $380k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-301 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $327k (14.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (27.9% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $274k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#98 in WA, #1,912 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• Yakima School District (urban): math 34% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #238 of 291 in WA (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 326 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 468 units permitted in Yakima County in 2024 (23 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Yakima County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.4% in Yakima — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.