7852 S Hill Creek Rd

Columbia, MO 65203

$200,000F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,859 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Pending · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,835/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$460
• HOA: −$200
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $-259/mo
• Annual: $-3,104/yr
• Cap rate: 4.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.54%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-259 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (22.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (8.2% below list).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $154k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in MO, #862 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Columbia 93 (urban): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #194 of 324 in MO (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 459 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,303 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (549 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Boone County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.9% in Columbia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.