7852 S Hill Creek Rd · Columbia, MO 65203

$200,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,859 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1973 2.00 ac lot $70/sqft · 58% below area $200/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is an online auction. The starting bid of $200,000 does not reflect the selling price Absolute auction--this 4 bedroom, 3 bath home sits on 2+/- acres in the highly desirable Hill Creek Subdivision, just minutes from Columbia, the University of Missouri, shopping, restaurants, and hospitals. The property offers privacy, mature trees, abundant wildlife, and beautifully maintained flower gardens. Inside, you'll find multiple living areas including a living room with gas fireplace, a family room with wood stove, and a screened-in porch. The home also features a large unfinished walkout basement with endless potential. Subdivision amenities include a private 12+/- acre lake with sandy beach, pavilion, and swim dock.

Key facts

• Abundant wildlife
• Flower gardens
• Mature trees

Tags

• HILL CREEK SUBDIVISION
• MATURE TREES
• ABUNDANT WILDLIFE
• FLOWER GARDENS
• MULTIPLE LIVING AREAS
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-259 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (22.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (8.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.9% in Columbia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in MO, #862 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Columbia 93 (urban): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #194 of 324 in MO (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 459 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,303 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (549 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Boone County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $154,306 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.54%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $478,048
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -58.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7852 S Hill Creek Rd	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,860 (0%)	0mo	$200,000	$70	98

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-42,772
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-31,808
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65203

• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 459
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,835 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$376 /mo · $4,518/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$200
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $-259

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,163

Max offer price $154,306

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $200 · $2,400/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 726-char remark

   Show marketing remark (726 chars)

   This is an online auction. The starting bid of $200,000 does not reflect the selling price Absolute auction--this 4 bedroom, 3 bath home sits on 2+/- acres in the highly desirable Hill Creek Subdivision, just minutes from Columbia, the University of Missouri, shopping, restaurants, and hospitals. The property offers privacy, mature trees, abundant wildlife, and beautifully maintained flower gardens. Inside, you'll find multiple living areas including a living room with gas fireplace, a family room with wood stove, and a screened-in porch. The home also features a large unfinished walkout basement with endless potential. Subdivision amenities include a private 12+/- acre lake with sandy beach, pavilion, and swim dock.

2. 2026-04-11
   listed $200,000 Active 726-char remark

   Show marketing remark (726 chars)

   This is an online auction. The starting bid of $200,000 does not reflect the selling price Absolute auction--this 4 bedroom, 3 bath home sits on 2+/- acres in the highly desirable Hill Creek Subdivision, just minutes from Columbia, the University of Missouri, shopping, restaurants, and hospitals. The property offers privacy, mature trees, abundant wildlife, and beautifully maintained flower gardens. Inside, you'll find multiple living areas including a living room with gas fireplace, a family room with wood stove, and a screened-in porch. The home also features a large unfinished walkout basement with endless potential. Subdivision amenities include a private 12+/- acre lake with sandy beach, pavilion, and swim dock.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,518 · $376/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,518 · $376/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,025
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$4,518
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,762
• − Management: −$1,762
• − HOA: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$6,438
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,545
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,559/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia 93
• NCES district ID: 2901000
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,547
• Composite: 31.21/100
• National rank: #6036
• State rank: #194 of 324 in MO

Livability — Columbia

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #862

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Boone County · 158,877 people
• City population: 158,877
• Metro: Columbia, MO
• Population (ZIP): 61,539
• Household income: $79,960
• Rent vs Own: 37.9% rent · 62.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1991.0

Population outlook (Boone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,891 people
• By 2030: 217,799 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 246,789 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 276,116 · +36.1%
• By 2075: 348,426 · +71.7%
• By 2100: 400,856 · +97.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 9% Asian 6% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Chinese 2% Spanish 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Boone

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.9% · R 44.1% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+12.5 2016: D+5.9 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -274.18%
• Current HPI: 194.3615
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.09%
• Metro: Columbia, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — CBORMLS
• 2026-04-11 Listed $200,000 CBORMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,518 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.