5452 Lancelot Cir

Anchorage, AK 99508

$3,300,000C-

54 bd · 27.0 ba · 8,964 sqft · Built 1975 · MultiFamily · Pending · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $29,311/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$17,306
• Tax + insurance: −$2,283
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,155
• Net cashflow: $3,567/mo
• Annual: $42,802/yr
• Cap rate: 7.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.63%
• DSCR: 1.21
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $924,000

Investor read

• This is a 18 × 3-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $3.30M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($43k/yr) — positive. Per door: $198/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.93M (11.2% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($3.25M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.93M (11.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $23k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $99k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in AK, #2,553 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Anchorage School District (urban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #6 of 21 in AK (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wonder Park Elementary (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #149 of 156 statewide, top 96%, 264 students, 100% FRL); Clark Middle School (math 7% / reading 22%, grade F, #35 of 36 statewide, top 97%, 835 students, 100% FRL); Bartlett High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #42 of 61 statewide, top 82%, 1,373 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 38% district-wide (50 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 17% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-23 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Anchorage School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 147 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 306 units permitted in Anchorage Municipality in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Anchorage County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.8% in Anchorage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $29,311/mo this rent would consume 443% of the median local household income ($79k/yr) (locally 1248% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.