5452 Lancelot Cir · Anchorage, AK 99508

$3,300,000

54 bd · 27.0 ba · 8,964 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1975 0.88 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 18 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

Investment opportunity featuring a 3-building multifamily package of 9-plexes. Offering 54 beds and 27 baths, each building includes exterior stairwell access and common laundry rooms--designed for efficient management and strong, consistent rental income potential.

Key facts

• 0.88 acre lot
• Built 1975
• Listed 22 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 18 × 3-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $3.30M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($43k/yr) — positive. Per door: $198/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.93M (11.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.93M (11.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.8% in Anchorage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in AK, #2,553 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Anchorage School District (urban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #6 of 21 in AK (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wonder Park Elementary (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #149 of 156 statewide, top 96%, 264 students, 100% FRL); Clark Middle School (math 7% / reading 22%, grade F, #35 of 36 statewide, top 97%, 835 students, 100% FRL); Bartlett High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #42 of 61 statewide, top 82%, 1,373 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 38% district-wide (50 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 17% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-23 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Anchorage School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 147 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 306 units permitted in Anchorage Municipality in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $29,311/mo this rent would consume 443% of the median local household income ($79k/yr) (locally 1248% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $23k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $99k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anchorage County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($3.25M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,931,100 (11.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.63%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-252,623
• Equity at exit: $492,041

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $307,159
• Equity at exit: $285,324

Cash invested: $924,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99508

• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 168.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $29,311 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$17,306
• Tax from tax record: −$908 /mo · $10,900/yr
• Insurance: −$1,375
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,155
• Net cashflow: $3,567

Break-even live

Break-even rent $24,796

Max offer price $3,300,000

Occupancy floor 83%

18-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 18× units	3	1.5	$29,304
Total (18 units)			$29,311

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $825,000
• Closing costs: $99,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   listed $3,300,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $10,900 · $908/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $25,085 · $2,090/mo
• Expected delta: +$14,185/yr (+$1,182/mo · 130.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $351,732
• − Mortgage interest: −$184,851
• − Property taxes: −$10,900
• − Insurance: −$16,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$28,139
• − Management: −$28,139
• − Depreciation: −$96,000
• Taxable loss: −$12,796
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,071
• After-tax cash flow: $45,873/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anchorage School District
• NCES district ID: 0200180
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $76,447
• Composite: 37.0/100
• National rank: #4523
• State rank: #6 of 21 in AK

Livability — Anchorage

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2553

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Anchorage, AK
• County: Anchorage Borough · 246,594 people
• City population: 218,117
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 36,458
• Household income: $79,314
• Rent vs Own: 46.8% rent · 53.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1248.0

Population outlook (Anchorage County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 314,993 people
• By 2030: 321,771 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 335,493 · +6.5%
• By 2050: 352,799 · +12.0%
• By 2075: 414,771 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 474,485 · +50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.82)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Two or more races 14% Asian 13% Hispanic / Latino 13% Native American 10% Pacific Islander 8% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 11% Spanish 8% Tagalog/Filipino 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Anchorage

• 2024 margin: D (+12.7) · D 56.3% · R 43.7%
• 2016→2024 swing: +27.9pp toward D · 2016: -15.2pp · 2024: 12.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.7 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -203.51%
• Current HPI: 257.8807
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.88%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — AKMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $3,300,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,900 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.