119 Cedar Forest Rd

Pleasant Hill, TX 75939

$74,900B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Built 1993 · Manufactured · Pending · 72 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,141/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $394/mo
• Annual: $4,726/yr
• Cap rate: 12.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.53%
• DSCR: 2.00
• 1% rule: 1.52%
• Cash to close: $20,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $394 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($518 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,310 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Corrigan-Camden ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #609 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Corrigan-Camden El (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 401 students, 74% FRL); Corrigan-Camden J H (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 195 students, 69% FRL); Corrigan-Camden H S (math 27% / reading 44%, grade F, #939 of 1,632 statewide, top 58%, 240 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools at 68% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 90% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.