119 Cedar Forest Rd · Pleasant Hill, TX 75939

$74,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Manufactured public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1993 1.52 ac lot ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your country retreat! This UNRESTRICTED, fully fenced, over 1.5 acre property offers the chance to get away from it all and make it your own! The home needs quite a few repairs but is ready for the right owner! With multiple living spaces, you'll appreciate the room to roam! The wood burning stove in the family room offers charm and the large kitchen ensures space for the chef of the home to cook, with plenty of cabinets and lots of counter space! With a recently installed whole home backup GENERAC, you'll have peace of mind for years to come! Whether you decide to renovate or recreate from scratch, this property in the pines is sure to please! Call your agent today for your priv

Key facts

• Fully fenced
• Large kitchen
• Plenty of cabinets

Tags

• FULLY FENCED
• OVER 1.5 ACRE PROPERTY
• MULTIPLE LIVING SPACES
• WOOD BURNING STOVE
• LARGE KITCHEN
• PLENTY OF CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $394 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,310 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Corrigan-Camden ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #609 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Corrigan-Camden El (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 401 students, 74% FRL); Corrigan-Camden J H (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 195 students, 69% FRL); Corrigan-Camden H S (math 27% / reading 44%, grade F, #939 of 1,632 statewide, top 58%, 240 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools at 68% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($518 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.1% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 90% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,406 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.53%
• DSCR: 2.00
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.06% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $30,468
• Equity at exit: $29,796

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.72×
• Total profit: $78,055
• Equity at exit: $43,102

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75939

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 46
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,141 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $1,001/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $394

Break-even live

Break-even rent $642

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $436	-5% $415	+0% $394	+5% $373	+10% $351
Rent	-10% $304	-5% $349	+0% $394	+5% $439	+10% $484
Rate	-1.0pp $432	-0.5pp $413	base $394	+0.5pp $374	+1.0pp $355

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-06
   price $74,900
4. 2026-03-27
   price $82,500
5. 2026-02-23
   listed $85,000 Active
6. 2021-01-21
   soldstatus
7. 1997-08-16
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,001 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,371 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$370/yr (+$31/mo · 36.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 90% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,690
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$1,001
• − Insurance: −$374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,095
• − Management: −$1,095
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $3,749
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$900
• After-tax cash flow: $3,826/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Corrigan-Camden ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815300
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $37,508
• Composite: 26.25/100
• National rank: #7258
• State rank: #609 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pleasant Hill

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1310
• US rank: #22659

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,974

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 17% Black 15% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 20% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.06%
• Current HPI: 139.8396
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $74,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $82,500 HARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2021-01-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-08-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,001 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.