The Estero Plan

Lytle, TX 78052

$263,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,572 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,388/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,558
• Tax + insurance: −$495
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $-166/mo
• Annual: $-1,998/yr
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.40%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $83,190

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $263k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-166 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (9.2% below list).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $239k (9.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#404 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lytle ISD (rural): math 24% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #690 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 224 units permitted in Atascosa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Atascosa County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.8% in Lytle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.