The Estero Plan · Lytle, TX 78052

$263,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,572 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

The Estero is a charming one-story home featured in Saddle Ridge Estates in Lytle, TX. Featuring 2 classic front exteriors, this 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home also offers 1586 square feet of living space and a 2-car garage. A front porch (per plan) welcomes you into the home and opens to the gourmet kitchen which includes quartz counter tops, shaker style cabinets, stainless steel appliances and an open concept floorplan with the kitchen flowing seamlessly into the dining room and living room. The main bedroom has an attractive ensuite bathroom that features a quartz vanity countertop, shaker style cabinetry and a spacious tiled walk-in shower. Enjoy additional storage with a large walk-in clo

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Quartz counter tops
• Ensuite bathroom

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTER TOPS
• SHAKER STYLE CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• OPEN CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• ENSUITE BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $263,000

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached 2-car parking (2 total parking spaces, 2 garage spaces)
• Home design: New construction plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,572

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan model home: The Estero

🏗️ New construction. The $263,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $297,108.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $263k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-166 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (9.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (9.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.8% in Lytle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#404 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lytle ISD (rural): math 24% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #690 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 224 units permitted in Atascosa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Atascosa County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $238,833 (9.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.40%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $297,108
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19938 Wyatt Earp	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,723 (+10%)	7mo	$280,000	$163	72
19831 Doc Holiday Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,720 (+9%)	1mo	$277,000	$161	70
16021 Stratford Cv	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,626 (+3%)	3mo	$319,900	$197	70
16004 Stratford Cv	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,626 (+3%)	1mo	$313,900	$193	69
16024 Stratford Cv	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,626 (+3%)	4mo	$319,900	$197	67
16032 Stratford Cv	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,626 (+3%)	6mo	$318,900	$196	66
16009 Cabana Dr	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,626 (+3%)	9mo	$307,900	$189	62
16029 Delgado Hls	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,626 (+3%)	9mo	$296,900	$183	58
16037 Delgado Hls	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,626 (+3%)	9mo	$301,900	$186	58
16000 Windview Ct	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,626 (+3%)	7mo	$294,000	$181	57
16005 Delgado Hls	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,626 (+3%)	9mo	$315,900	$194	57
15000 Lytle Somerset Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-8%)	0mo	$231,999	$161	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.25% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $79,633
• Equity at exit: $191,473

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.90×
• Total profit: $241,499
• Equity at exit: $351,357

Cash invested: $83,190 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78052

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,388 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,558
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$371 /mo · $4,457/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $-166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,599

Max offer price $273,020

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,277
• Closing costs: $8,913
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16004 Tassel Br Lytle, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	1558	$2,388	$1.53	1d	1	0.69mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $263,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $263,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $263,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $263,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $263,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $263,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $263,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-10
   listed $263,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,660
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,643
• − Property taxes: −$4,457
• − Insurance: −$1,486
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,293
• − Management: −$2,293
• − Depreciation: −$8,643
• Taxable loss: −$7,154
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,717
• After-tax cash flow: $-281/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

The home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor aesthetic updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Rental HVAC maintenance and tune-up — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance and tune-up — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lytle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828650
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $54,478
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8004
• State rank: #690 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lytle

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #404
• US rank: #8374

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lytle, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,221

Population outlook (Atascosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,233 people
• By 2030: 61,729 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 71,122 · +24.3%
• By 2050: 80,906 · +41.4%
• By 2075: 106,134 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 122,415 · +113.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% White 32% Two or more races 22% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 58%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Greek 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 44% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Atascosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.3) · D 27.9% · R 71.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.3 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+18.3 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.25%
• Current HPI: 221.8201
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B