11111 Tulip Ridge Trl

Houston, TX 77044

$363,790D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,659 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,767/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,908
• Tax + insurance: −$248
• HOA: −$31
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$581
• Net cashflow: $-1/mo
• Annual: $-9/yr
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.01%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $101,861

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $364k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-9/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $364k (0.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (23.9% below list).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($358k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $277k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 337 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $38k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.