11111 Tulip Ridge Trl · Houston, TX 77044

$363,790

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,659 sqft · Land · 29 Days on market

Built 2026 $31/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW CONSTRUCTION by LONG LAKE - Welcome home to 11111 Gardenia Creek Drive located in the highly sought-after Sheldon Ridge community and zoned to Sheldon ISD. With meticulous attention to detail and tremendous upgrades throughout, this exquisite residence showcases a remarkable floor plan featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, 1 half bath, a generous sized covered patio, and a convenient attached 2-car garage. Get ready to be enchanted by the breathtaking features that await you. Don't miss this opportunity. Call now to discover more details about this exceptional plan.

Key facts

• Tremendous upgrades
• New construction
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• EXPANSIVE COVERED PATIO
• METICULOUS ATTENTION TO DETAIL
• TREMENDOUS UPGRADES
• REMARKABLE FLOOR PLAN

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Sheldon Ridge HOA; Annual association fee; Curbs and gutters in community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Built in 2026; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Builder: Long Lake; Full ownership
• Construction: Brick and cement siding exterior
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio and deck; Private backyard; Fence (back yard); Sprinkler/irrigation; Subdivision setting; Concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Instant hot water; Tankless water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (16x13); Bedroom on second floor (12x12); Bedroom on second floor (10x13)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: High ceilings; Kitchen island; Kitchen open to family room; Pantry; Quartz counters; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub with shower; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Loft; Programmable thermostat; Gas log fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $364k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-9/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $364k (0.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (23.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $277k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 337 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($358k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $38k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $276,734 (23.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.01%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.59% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-42,785
• Equity at exit: $77,694

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-40,208
• Equity at exit: $73,243

Cash invested: $101,861 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77044

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,767 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,908
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,159/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$31
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$581
• Net cashflow: $-1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,768

Max offer price $363,661

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,948
• Closing costs: $10,914
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1307 Bayou St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1814	$2,400	$1.32	7d	1	0.42mi
1303 Bayou St Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1869	$3,200	$1.71	43d	1	0.42mi
4109 Hare St Unit 1019559P Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1905	$6,852	$3.60	7d	1	0.46mi
4109 Hare St Unit A Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1913	$6,950	$3.63	43d	1	0.46mi
1222 Upton St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2055	$2,600	$1.27	43d	1	0.49mi
4706 Hershe St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2283	$3,300	$1.45	43d	1	0.58mi
3410 Baer St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2040	$3,500	$1.72	43d	1	0.60mi
3419 Gillespie St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2168	$2,300	$1.06	43d	1	0.61mi
611 Sydnor St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2157	$2,400	$1.11	43d	1	0.70mi
2905 Baer St Unit 1047953P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1991	$3,094	$1.55	5d	1	0.74mi
5217 Noble St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1897	$2,750	$1.45	43d	1	0.91mi
2115 Runnels St Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$3,056	$1.66	11d	1	1.38mi
2115 Runnels St Unit 3187 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$3,013	$1.64	2d	1	1.38mi
2115 Runnels St Unit 2148 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$3,045	$1.66	10d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $31 · $372/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $363,790 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $363,790 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $361,790 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $361,790 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $361,790 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $361,790 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $361,790 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $361,790 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $361,790 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $361,790 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $361,790 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $361,790 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-05-21
    price $361,790
14. 2026-05-13
    listed $401,790 Active
15. 2025-07-28
    soldstatus Closed 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    NEW CONSTRUCTION by LONG LAKE - Welcome home to 11111 Gardenia Creek Drive located in the highly sought-after Sheldon Ridge community and zoned to Sheldon ISD. With meticulous attention to detail and tremendous upgrades throughout, this exquisite residence showcases a remarkable floor plan featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, 1 half bath, a generous sized covered patio, and a convenient attached 2-car garage. Get ready to be enchanted by the breathtaking features that await you. Don't miss this opportunity. Call now to discover more details about this exceptional plan.

16. 2025-07-05
    status Pending 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    NEW CONSTRUCTION by LONG LAKE - Welcome home to 11111 Gardenia Creek Drive located in the highly sought-after Sheldon Ridge community and zoned to Sheldon ISD. With meticulous attention to detail and tremendous upgrades throughout, this exquisite residence showcases a remarkable floor plan featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, 1 half bath, a generous sized covered patio, and a convenient attached 2-car garage. Get ready to be enchanted by the breathtaking features that await you. Don't miss this opportunity. Call now to discover more details about this exceptional plan.

17. 2025-03-17
    listed $404,150 Active 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    NEW CONSTRUCTION by LONG LAKE - Welcome home to 11111 Gardenia Creek Drive located in the highly sought-after Sheldon Ridge community and zoned to Sheldon ISD. With meticulous attention to detail and tremendous upgrades throughout, this exquisite residence showcases a remarkable floor plan featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, 1 half bath, a generous sized covered patio, and a convenient attached 2-car garage. Get ready to be enchanted by the breathtaking features that await you. Don't miss this opportunity. Call now to discover more details about this exceptional plan.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,159 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,657 · $555/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,498/yr (+$458/mo · 474.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,208
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,378
• − Property taxes: −$1,159
• − Insurance: −$1,819
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,657
• − Management: −$2,657
• − HOA: −$372
• − Depreciation: −$10,583
• Taxable loss: −$6,416
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,540
• After-tax cash flow: $1,531/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,347
• Household income: $95,000
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1332.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% Black 32% White 19% Two or more races 18% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.59%
• Current HPI: 215.5736
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $361,790 HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $401,790 HARMLS
• 2025-07-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-07-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-03-17 Listed $404,150 HARMLS