15509 SE Mill Plain Blvd #43

Vancouver, WA 98684

$159,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 1988 · Manufactured · Pending · 221 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,138/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$231
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $624/mo
• Annual: $7,488/yr
• Cap rate: 11.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.82%
• DSCR: 1.75
• 1% rule: 1.34%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $624 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• It's been on market 221 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $140k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#62 in WA, #1,133 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living D-.
• Evergreen School District (Clark) (urban): math 41% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #164 of 291 in WA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 299 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,547 units permitted in Clark County in 2024 (1,361 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clark County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 2.7% in Vancouver — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 221 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.