15509 SE Mill Plain Blvd #43 · Vancouver, WA 98684

$159,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 221 Days on market

Built 1988 $109/sqft · 23% above area Est $129k · 23% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful well kept home with a large yard nestled in a 55+ mobile home park that is clean, quiet, and centrally located with RV Storage, club house, and community library. Walking distance to shopping and restaurants. This home includes all appliances, including washer and dryer. There is a separate shed for storage attached to the carport. Lot rent is $850 and includes water, septic, garbage and yard waste. Prospective buyer must fill out application with manager. Must be 55 or older.

Key facts

• Community library
• Large yard
• Rv storage

Tags

• LARGE YARD
• RV STORAGE
• CLUB HOUSE
• COMMUNITY LIBRARY
• SEPARATE SHED FOR STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $624 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $140k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 2.7% in Vancouver — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#62 in WA, #1,133 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living D-.
• Evergreen School District (Clark) (urban): math 41% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #164 of 291 in WA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 299 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,547 units permitted in Clark County in 2024 (1,361 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clark County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 221 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $139,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 221 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.82%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $129,240
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: 23.03%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15509 SE Mill Plain Blvd #47	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,550 (+6%)	5mo	$140,000	$90	85
15509 SE Mill Plain Blvd #96	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,476 (+1%)	19mo	$148,000	$100	82
15411 SE Mill Plain Blvd Unit D3	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,635 (+12%)	6mo	$118,000	$72	65
15411 SE Mill Plain Blvd Unit C-12	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,331 (-9%)	23mo	$119,000	$89	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $10,105
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $44,654
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98684

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,138 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$165 /mo · $1,978/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $624

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,348

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1000 SE 160th Ave Unit RR-342 Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.0	906	$1,600	$1.77	23d	1	0.14mi
1000 SE 160th Ave Unit RR-336 Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.0	906	$1,600	$1.77	16d	1	0.14mi
1000 SE 160th Ave Apt FF257 Vancouver, WA	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,950	$1.86	43d	1	0.14mi
1000 SE 160th Ave Apt N116 Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.0	906	$1,600	$1.77	17d	1	0.14mi
1000 SE 160th Ave Apt M104 Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.0	906	$1,600	$1.77	7d	1	0.14mi
1000 SE 160th Ave Apt DD238 Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.0	906	$1,600	$1.77	43d	1	0.14mi
1302 SE 155th Ave Vancouver, WA	3.0	2.0	1558	$2,495	$1.60	44d	1	0.14mi
510 SE 157th Ave #35 Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,895	$1.79	23d	1	0.25mi
14913 SE Mill Plain Blvd Vancouver, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	939	$2,000	$2.13	2d	4	0.38mi
112 SE 158th Ave Vancouver, WA	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,995	$1.70	23d	1	0.46mi
14600 SE 7th Way Vancouver, WA	3.0	2.5	1476	$2,345	$1.59	43d	1	0.54mi
15501 NE 2nd St Vancouver, WA	3.0	2.0	1264	$2,750	$2.18	1d	1	0.56mi
1600 SE 168th Ave Vancouver, WA	3.0	1.5	1210	$2,350	$1.94	4d	1	0.67mi
301 SE 166th Ave Vancouver, WA	3.0	1.0–2.0	883	$2,080	$2.36	7d	15	0.68mi
1707 SE 145th Ct Unit 1707 Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.0	1016	$1,795	$1.77	23d	1	0.68mi
14616 SE 1st St Vancouver, WA	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,975	$1.65	43d	1	0.69mi
Chase LNDG Gresham, OR	3.0	2.5	1389	$2,200	$1.58	12d	3	0.72mi
621 SE 168th Ave Vancouver, WA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1125	$2,274	$2.02	2d	9	0.73mi
621 SE 168th Ave Vancouver, WA	3.0	1.0–2.0	869	$2,294	$2.64	14d	7	0.73mi
16801 SE 1st St Vancouver, WA	2.0	1.0	960	$1,608	$1.68	23d	1	0.74mi
14111 SE 6th St Vancouver, WA	2.0	1.5	1201	$2,104	$1.75	23d	1	0.76mi
2404 SE 161st Ct Unit X182 Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,495	$1.66	19d	1	0.78mi
701 SE 139th Ave Vancouver, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	806	$1,600	$1.99	3d	6	0.82mi
2610 SE 164th Ave Unit G12 Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.0	1130	$2,265	$2.00	43d	1	0.84mi
1603 SE 171st Pl Vancouver, WA	4.0	2.5	1771	$6,300	$3.56	17d	1	0.85mi
14103 SE McGillivray Blvd Vancouver, WA	4.0	2.0	1776	$3,150	$1.77	4d	1	0.89mi
905 SE 136th Ave Vancouver, WA	2.0	1.0	945	$1,810	$1.92	2d	2	0.94mi
16900 SE 26th Dr Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.0	1043	$1,926	$1.85	1d	5	0.97mi
600 SE 177th Ave Vancouver, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	931	$2,535	$2.72	1d	20	0.97mi
16202 NE 8th St Unit B Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.5	1500	$2,150	$1.43	43d	1	0.99mi
17775 SE Mill Plain Blvd Vancouver, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	732	$2,353	$3.21	4d	1	1.02mi
16506 SE 29th St Vancouver, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$2,199	$2.07	1d	13	1.03mi
812 SE 136th Ave Vancouver, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	931	$2,175	$2.34	3d	10	1.10mi
13601 SE 19th St Vancouver, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	965	$2,224	$2.30	7d	6	1.10mi
13307 SE McGillivray Blvd Vancouver, WA	2.0	2.0	962	$1,895	$1.97	2d	1	1.13mi
13314 SE 19th St Vancouver, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	899	$2,274	$2.53	3d	10	1.13mi
13213 SE 7th St Vancouver, WA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1097	$1,895	$1.73	2d	2	1.18mi
3100 SE 168th Ave Vancouver, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1040	$2,703	$2.60	1d	14	1.18mi
3114 SE 147th Pl Vancouver, WA	2.0–3.0	1.5	1271	$2,199	$1.73	14d	12	1.18mi
13210 SE 7th St Unit Q73 Vancouver, WA	3.0	2.0	1323	$2,395	$1.81	43d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $159,000 Pending 221 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 221 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 219 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 218 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 215 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 214 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,000 Active 213 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $159,000 Active 209 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $159,000 Active 208 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 207 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 206 DOM
12. 2026-05-01
    status Active 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    Beautiful well kept home with a large yard nestled in a 55+ mobile home park that is clean, quiet, and centrally located with RV Storage, club house, and community library. Walking distance to shopping and restaurants. This home includes all appliances, including washer and dryer. There is a separate shed for storage attached to the carport. Lot rent is $850 and includes water, septic, garbage and yard waste. Prospective buyer must fill out application with manager. Must be 55 or older.

13. 2026-04-23
    price $159,000 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    Beautiful well kept home with a large yard nestled in a 55+ mobile home park that is clean, quiet, and centrally located with RV Storage, club house, and community library. Walking distance to shopping and restaurants. This home includes all appliances, including washer and dryer. There is a separate shed for storage attached to the carport. Lot rent is $850 and includes water, septic, garbage and yard waste. Prospective buyer must fill out application with manager. Must be 55 or older.

14. 2026-03-08
    price $169,000 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    Beautiful well kept home with a large yard nestled in a 55+ mobile home park that is clean, quiet, and centrally located with RV Storage, club house, and community library. Walking distance to shopping and restaurants. This home includes all appliances, including washer and dryer. There is a separate shed for storage attached to the carport. Lot rent is $850 and includes water, septic, garbage and yard waste. Prospective buyer must fill out application with manager. Must be 55 or older.

15. 2026-02-16
    status Active 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    Beautiful well kept home with a large yard nestled in a 55+ mobile home park that is clean, quiet, and centrally located with RV Storage, club house, and community library. Walking distance to shopping and restaurants. This home includes all appliances, including washer and dryer. There is a separate shed for storage attached to the carport. Lot rent is $850 and includes water, septic, garbage and yard waste. Prospective buyer must fill out application with manager. Must be 55 or older.

16. 2026-02-08
    status Pending 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    Beautiful well kept home with a large yard nestled in a 55+ mobile home park that is clean, quiet, and centrally located with RV Storage, club house, and community library. Walking distance to shopping and restaurants. This home includes all appliances, including washer and dryer. There is a separate shed for storage attached to the carport. Lot rent is $850 and includes water, septic, garbage and yard waste. Prospective buyer must fill out application with manager. Must be 55 or older.

17. 2026-02-02
    price $179,000 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    Beautiful well kept home with a large yard nestled in a 55+ mobile home park that is clean, quiet, and centrally located with RV Storage, club house, and community library. Walking distance to shopping and restaurants. This home includes all appliances, including washer and dryer. There is a separate shed for storage attached to the carport. Lot rent is $850 and includes water, septic, garbage and yard waste. Prospective buyer must fill out application with manager. Must be 55 or older.

18. 2025-11-20
    price $189,000 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    Beautiful well kept home with a large yard nestled in a 55+ mobile home park that is clean, quiet, and centrally located with RV Storage, club house, and community library. Walking distance to shopping and restaurants. This home includes all appliances, including washer and dryer. There is a separate shed for storage attached to the carport. Lot rent is $850 and includes water, septic, garbage and yard waste. Prospective buyer must fill out application with manager. Must be 55 or older.

19. 2025-10-30
    listed $199,000 Active 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    Beautiful well kept home with a large yard nestled in a 55+ mobile home park that is clean, quiet, and centrally located with RV Storage, club house, and community library. Walking distance to shopping and restaurants. This home includes all appliances, including washer and dryer. There is a separate shed for storage attached to the carport. Lot rent is $850 and includes water, septic, garbage and yard waste. Prospective buyer must fill out application with manager. Must be 55 or older.

20. 2020-04-14
    soldstatus $148,000 Sold 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    UPDATED MANUFACTURED HOME ON LARGE CORNER LOT. 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 1456 sqft, built in '88. This manufactured home has been beautifully updated inside and out. Peaceful front porch. Living and dining have vaulted ceilings & are open to the kitchen with newer cabinetry, island, & stainless appliances. Newer flooring throughout, newer paint, heat pump, furnace and roof. Large pie shaped lot, close to shopping. All in a clean, quiet community. Lot, Sewer, Water & Garbage Included in Park dues.

21. 2020-02-13
    status Pending 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    UPDATED MANUFACTURED HOME ON LARGE CORNER LOT. 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 1456 sqft, built in '88. This manufactured home has been beautifully updated inside and out. Peaceful front porch. Living and dining have vaulted ceilings & are open to the kitchen with newer cabinetry, island, & stainless appliances. Newer flooring throughout, newer paint, heat pump, furnace and roof. Large pie shaped lot, close to shopping. All in a clean, quiet community. Lot, Sewer, Water & Garbage Included in Park dues.

22. 2020-01-31
    listed $148,000 Active 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    UPDATED MANUFACTURED HOME ON LARGE CORNER LOT. 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 1456 sqft, built in '88. This manufactured home has been beautifully updated inside and out. Peaceful front porch. Living and dining have vaulted ceilings & are open to the kitchen with newer cabinetry, island, & stainless appliances. Newer flooring throughout, newer paint, heat pump, furnace and roof. Large pie shaped lot, close to shopping. All in a clean, quiet community. Lot, Sewer, Water & Garbage Included in Park dues.

23. 2018-10-09
    soldstatus $143,500 Sold
24. 2018-09-22
    status Pending
25. 2018-08-15
    listed $153,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,978 · $165/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,978 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,655
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$1,978
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,052
• − Management: −$2,052
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $5,245
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,259
• After-tax cash flow: $6,230/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Evergreen School District (Clark)
• NCES district ID: 5302700
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,418
• Composite: 42.53/100
• National rank: #6859
• State rank: #164 of 291 in WA

Livability — Vancouver

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #1133

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime F Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vancouver, WA
• County: Clark County · 513,189 people
• City population: 360,195
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• Population (ZIP): 37,298
• Household income: $90,620
• Rent vs Own: 46.6% rent · 53.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1481.0

Population outlook (Clark County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 529,610 people
• By 2030: 563,242 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 625,905 · +18.2%
• By 2050: 681,558 · +28.7%
• By 2075: 805,967 · +52.2%
• By 2100: 877,450 · +65.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 6% Pacific Islander 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Clark

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+7.0) · D 52.1% · R 45.1% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.9pp no change · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 7.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+7.0 2020: D+5.1 2016: D+0.1 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -237.93%
• Current HPI: 290.416
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+3.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Relisted — RMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $159,000 RMLS
• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $169,000 RMLS
• 2026-02-16 Relisted — RMLS
• 2026-02-08 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $179,000 RMLS
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $189,000 RMLS
• 2025-10-30 Listed $199,000 RMLS
• 2020-04-14 Sold (MLS) $148,000 RMLS
• 2020-02-13 Pending — RMLS
• 2020-01-31 Listed $148,000 RMLS
• 2018-10-09 Sold (MLS) $143,500 RMLS
• 2018-09-22 Pending — RMLS
• 2018-08-15 Listed $153,900 RMLS

Property tax history

+35.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,978 · +62.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.