4444 Circlewood Dr. Plan

Rapid Valley, SD 57703

$204,900C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 870 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,178/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax + insurance: −$342
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $305/mo
• Annual: $3,654/yr
• Cap rate: 8.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.37%
• DSCR: 1.28
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $57,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $205k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $305 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $205k).
• It's been on market 870 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $180k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#160 in SD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Rapid City Area School District 51-4 (urban): math 34% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #50 of 59 in SD (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.3%/yr); 179 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,181 units permitted in Pennington County in 2024 (715 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pennington County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.3% rent growth), your $57k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.0% in Rapid Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 870 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.