4444 Circlewood Dr. Plan · Rapid Valley, SD 57703

$204,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured · 870 Days on market

Est $221k · 7% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Listed 869 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price listed as $204,900

Exterior

• Utilities: Natural gas; Central air (electric); Forced air heating; Heat pump
• Home design: Single-family plan at 4444 Circlewood Dr. (Rapid City, SD)
• Construction: Interior living area approx. 1512
• Exterior features: Asphalt roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating with forced air and heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan home (model/plan specified); Virtual tour available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $305 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $205k).
• Recommended offer: $180k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.0% in Rapid Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#160 in SD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Rapid City Area School District 51-4 (urban): math 34% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #50 of 59 in SD (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.3%/yr); 179 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,181 units permitted in Pennington County in 2024 (715 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pennington County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.3% rent growth), your $57k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 870 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 870 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.37%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $220,752
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4432 Circlewood Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-1%)	8mo	$193,435	$129	87
4464 Circlewood Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-4%)	1mo	$20,000	$14	87
4419 Circlewood Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-14%)	2mo	$150,000	$116	71
3117 Pioneer Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,512 (0%)	2mo	$335,000	$222	70
4604 Carol St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-4%)	8mo	$194,900	$134	69
5621 Mercury Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+4%)	2mo	$280,000	$179	58
2414 Covington St	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-7%)	15mo	$345,000	$246	58
4911 Rainbow Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+11%)	13mo	$245,000	$146	41
4911 Other	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+11%)	13mo	$245,000	$146	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-4,016
• Equity at exit: $30,551

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $65,350
• Equity at exit: $17,716

Cash invested: $57,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Dakota: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; mostly landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 57703

• Home prices YoY: -34.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 179
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,178 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$256 /mo · $3,074/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $305

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,792

Max offer price $204,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,225
• Closing costs: $6,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4801 Homestead St Rapid City, SD	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1134	$1,865	$1.64	20d	16	1.24mi
4144 Augusta Dr Rapid City, SD	3.0	3.0	1661	$2,995	$1.80	20d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $204,900 Active 870 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $204,900 Active 869 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $204,900 Active 868 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $204,900 Active 867 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $204,900 Active 866 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $204,900 Active 864 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $204,900 Active 863 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $204,900 Active 861 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $204,900 Active 860 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $204,900 Active 859 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $204,900 Active 858 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $204,900 Active 855 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $204,900 Active 853 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $204,900 Active 852 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $204,900 Active 851 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $204,900 Active 850 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,135
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,478
• − Property taxes: −$3,074
• − Insurance: −$1,024
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,091
• − Management: −$2,091
• − Depreciation: −$5,961
• Taxable income: $417
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$100
• After-tax cash flow: $3,554/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rapid City Area School District 51-4
• NCES district ID: 4659820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,145
• Composite: 34.47/100
• National rank: #5189
• State rank: #50 of 59 in SD

Livability — Rapid Valley

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #13677

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rapid Valley, SD
• County: Pennington County · 99,403 people
• Metro: Rapid City, SD
• Population (ZIP): 18,013
• Household income: $83,739
• Rent vs Own: 17.4% rent · 82.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 186.0

Population outlook (Pennington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 125,504 people
• By 2030: 133,370 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 147,505 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 160,507 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 197,585 · +57.4%
• By 2100: 241,736 · +92.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 10% Native American 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Iranian 5% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pennington

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.4) · D 35.4% · R 61.9% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.3pp toward R · 2008: -21.2pp · 2024: -26.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.4 2020: R+25.1 2016: R+33.0 2012: R+29.5 2008: R+21.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -119.50%
• Current HPI: 226.7266
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.27%
• Metro: Rapid City, SD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.70%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities	1	$1B