918 E Cumberland Ave

Middlesborough, KY 40965

$55,000A-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 792 sqft · Built 1991 · SingleFamily · Active · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,049/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax + insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $495/mo
• Annual: $5,935/yr
• Cap rate: 17.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.54%
• DSCR: 2.71
• 1% rule: 1.91%
• Cash to close: $15,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $495 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $53k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#456 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Middlesboro Independent (town): math 14% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #153 of 165 in KY (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 44 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bell County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $55k implies a 323% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 3.2% in Middlesborough — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.