918 E Cumberland Ave · Middlesborough, KY 40965

$55,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 792 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1991 0.58 ac lot $69/sqft · 34% below area Est $84k · 34% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Old home needs work with an attached older home that needs to be torn down. Great Location on Cumberland Ave behind Food City

Key facts

• 0.58 acre lot
• Built 1991
• Listed 41 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Detached property; 792 total building area (per tax records)
• Construction: Frame construction; Other construction materials; Slab foundation; Unfinished basement
• Exterior features: Vinyl windows; Wooded, irregular and level lot; Mountain and city views

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator included
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; 6 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $495 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 3.2% in Middlesborough — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#456 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Middlesboro Independent (town): math 14% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #153 of 165 in KY (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 44 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Bell County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $55k implies a 323% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $53,350 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.54%
• DSCR: 2.71
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $83,729
• List price: $55,000
• Delta: -34.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1009 E Cumberland Ave	0.12mi	2/1.0	850 (+7%)	1mo	$95,000	$112	82
108 S 8th St	0.10mi	2/1.0	700 (-12%)	16mo	$38,000	$54	62
524 E Lothbury Ave	0.57mi	2/1.0	800 (+1%)	12mo	$160,000	$200	62
305 N 15th St	0.56mi	2/1.0	876 (+11%)	8mo	$50,000	$57	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.6% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.59×
• Total profit: $39,882
• Equity at exit: $26,613

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.21×
• Total profit: $95,686
• Equity at exit: $42,541

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40965

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,049 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $278/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $495

Break-even live

Break-even rent $423

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $55,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $70,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $70,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 22 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    listed $75,000 Active 125-char remark
18. 2026-05-05
    historical
19. 2026-04-14
    price $120,000
20. 2026-02-11
    price $130,000
21. 2025-12-31
    price $160,000
22. 2025-11-11
    price $180,000
23. 2025-10-21
    listed $200,000 Active
24. 1991-06-01
    soldstatus $13,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $278 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $473 · $39/mo
• Expected delta: +$195/yr (+$16/mo · 70.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,593
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$278
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,007
• − Management: −$1,007
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $5,345
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,283
• After-tax cash flow: $4,652/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middlesboro Independent
• NCES district ID: 2104170
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $23,442
• Composite: 18.61/100
• National rank: #8900
• State rank: #153 of 165 in KY

Livability — Middlesborough

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #456
• US rank: #22662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middlesborough, KY
• City population: 11,698
• Population (ZIP): 11,698

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,501 people
• By 2030: 22,923 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 19,860 · -18.9%
• By 2050: 17,161 · -30.0%
• By 2075: 12,070 · -50.7%
• By 2100: 8,525 · -65.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.7) · D 15.2% · R 83.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.1pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -68.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.7 2020: R+63.2 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+51.7 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.60%
• Current HPI: 134.9069
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+323.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $55,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $70,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $75,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-05-05 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $120,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $130,000 ImagineMLS
• 2025-12-31 Price Changed $160,000 ImagineMLS
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $180,000 ImagineMLS
• 2025-10-21 Listed $200,000 ImagineMLS
• 1991-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $13,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $278 · -6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.