217 2nd

Kenedy, TX 78119

$25,000D+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,180 sqft · Built 1943 · SingleFamily · Active · 365 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,200/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax + insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $784/mo
• Annual: $9,414/yr
• Cap rate: 43.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 134.48%
• DSCR: 6.98
• 1% rule: 4.80%
• Cash to close: $7,000

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $25k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $784 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $25k).
• It's been on market 365 days — a 12% lower offer ($22k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $22k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $618 of equity ($173 loan paydown + $445 appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#822 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Kenedy ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #698 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 78 units permitted in Karnes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Karnes County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 43.9% vs local median 5.1% in Kenedy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 365 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.