217 2nd · Kenedy, TX 78119

$25,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,180 sqft · SingleFamily · 365 Days on market

Built 1943 9,583 sqft lot $21/sqft · 76% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• Built 1943
• Listed 365 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $784 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $22k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 43.9% vs local median 5.1% in Kenedy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#822 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Kenedy ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #698 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 78 units permitted in Karnes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $618 of equity ($173 loan paydown + $445 appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• Karnes County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 365 days — a 12% lower offer ($22k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $22,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 365 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 43.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 134.48%
• DSCR: 6.98
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $103,996
• List price: $25,000
• Delta: -75.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
213 6th	0.33mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,162 (-2%)	6mo	$47,000	$40	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.78% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.34×
• Total profit: $51,413
• Equity at exit: $9,565

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.44×
• Total profit: $115,084
• Equity at exit: $13,551

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78119

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $264/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $784

Break-even live

Break-even rent $207

Max offer price $25,000

Occupancy floor 30%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
322 W Main St Kenedy, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	718	$1,200	$1.67	43d	2	0.11mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $25,000 Active 365 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $25,000 Active 364 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $25,000 Active 363 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $25,000 Active 361 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $25,000 Active 360 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $25,000 Active 357 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $25,000 Active 356 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $25,000 Active 355 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $25,000 Active 354 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $25,000 Active 351 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $25,000 Active 350 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $25,000 Active 349 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $25,000 Active 348 DOM
14. 2025-07-22
    price $25,000
15. 2025-06-17
    listed $35,000 New
16. 2025-06-12
    historical
17. 2025-02-20
    price $45,000
18. 2024-12-05
    price $50,000
19. 2024-09-21
    price $55,000
20. 2024-08-23
    price $65,000
21. 2024-07-05
    listed $75,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $264 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $458 · $38/mo
• Expected delta: +$193/yr (+$16/mo · 73.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$264
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,152
• − Management: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $9,579
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,299
• After-tax cash flow: $7,115/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenedy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825440
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $40,961
• Composite: 22.43/100
• National rank: #8111
• State rank: #698 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kenedy

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #822
• US rank: #14883

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kenedy, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,023

Population outlook (Karnes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,734 people
• By 2030: 18,027 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 20,893 · +24.9%
• By 2050: 23,689 · +41.6%
• By 2075: 31,064 · +85.6%
• By 2100: 34,752 · +107.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% Two or more races 28% White 25% Black 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 56%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 29% Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Karnes

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.1) · D 20.7% · R 78.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.6pp toward R · 2008: -21.6pp · 2024: -58.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.1 2020: R+52.1 2016: R+43.4 2012: R+35.9 2008: R+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Current HPI: 125.8778
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-66.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $25,000 LERA
• 2025-06-17 Listed $35,000 LERA
• 2025-06-12 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-02-20 Price Changed $45,000 LERA
• 2024-12-05 Price Changed $50,000 LERA
• 2024-09-21 Price Changed $55,000 LERA
• 2024-08-23 Price Changed $65,000 LERA
• 2024-07-05 Listed $75,000 LERA

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $264 · -8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.