304 N Walnut St

Upton, KY 42784

$165,000D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Built 1906 · Other · Active · 57 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $934/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$196
• Net cashflow: $-315/mo
• Annual: $-3,775/yr
• Cap rate: 4.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.17%
• DSCR: 0.64
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-315 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $109k (33.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $93k (43.4% below list).
• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $93k (43.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#390 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Larue County (rural): math 26% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #82 of 165 in KY (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1906 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 65 units permitted in Larue County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Larue County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1906 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.