304 N Walnut St · Upton, KY 42784

$165,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Other public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1906 0.67 ac lot $164/sqft · 10% above area Est $225k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located off the main road in Upton, this 1.5-story home offers opportunity near the Ford plant in Glendale. The property features 2 bedrooms, 1 full bath, and approximately 1,512 square feet of living space, providing a functional layout. Interior details include engraved trim and a decorative fireplace that add character and distinction. Situated on a spacious 0.67-acre lot, the exterior offers a fenced yard, ample outdoor space, and a storage building for additional utility. With easy access to nearby highways and travel routes, the location supports convenient commuting while being just minutes outside of town. Selling As-Is. Schedule your tour today!

Key facts

• Engraved trim
• Easy access
• Decorative fireplace

Tags

• DECORATIVE FIREPLACE
• ENGRAVED TRIM
• FENCED YARD
• STORAGE BUILDING
• SPACIOUS LOT
• EASY ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-315 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $109k (33.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $93k (43.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $93k (43.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#390 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Larue County (rural): math 26% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #82 of 165 in KY (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 65 units permitted in Larue County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Larue County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1906 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,351 (43.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1906 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.17%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 14.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $225,000
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -26.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.94% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-9,291
• Equity at exit: $64,522

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $6,795
• Equity at exit: $92,486

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42784

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 14.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $934 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,417/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$196
• Net cashflow: $-315

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,332

Max offer price $109,421

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $165,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-04-22
    listed $165,000 Active 662-char remark

    Show marketing remark (662 chars)

    Located off the main road in Upton, this 1.5-story home offers opportunity near the Ford plant in Glendale. The property features 2 bedrooms, 1 full bath, and approximately 1,512 square feet of living space, providing a functional layout. Interior details include engraved trim and a decorative fireplace that add character and distinction. Situated on a spacious 0.67-acre lot, the exterior offers a fenced yard, ample outdoor space, and a storage building for additional utility. With easy access to nearby highways and travel routes, the location supports convenient commuting while being just minutes outside of town. Selling As-Is. Schedule your tour today!

17. 2021-12-20
    soldstatus $115,000 537-char remark

    Show marketing remark (537 chars)

    This cozy 2 story home with a covered front porch sits on a large lot in town close to everything and a short drive to Etown or Glendale. It features 2 bedrooms and 1 bath and detached garage. The large main floor living areas feature laminate flooring. Outside, there is a great fenced area in the spacious back yard to keep in your 2 or 4 legged kids contained as well as a detached garage or workshop. The water heater, furnace and windows and roof have all been replaced in recent years. This is a must see, call for your tour today!

18. 2021-12-20
    soldstatus $115,000

    Show marketing remark (537 chars)

    This cozy 2 story home with a covered front porch sits on a large lot in town close to everything and a short drive to Etown or Glendale. It features 2 bedrooms and 1 bath and detached garage. The large main floor living areas feature laminate flooring. Outside, there is a great fenced area in the spacious back yard to keep in your 2 or 4 legged kids contained as well as a detached garage or workshop. The water heater, furnace and windows and roof have all been replaced in recent years. This is a must see, call for your tour today!

19. 2021-11-03
    listed $115,000 537-char remark

    Show marketing remark (537 chars)

    This cozy 2 story home with a covered front porch sits on a large lot in town close to everything and a short drive to Etown or Glendale. It features 2 bedrooms and 1 bath and detached garage. The large main floor living areas feature laminate flooring. Outside, there is a great fenced area in the spacious back yard to keep in your 2 or 4 legged kids contained as well as a detached garage or workshop. The water heater, furnace and windows and roof have all been replaced in recent years. This is a must see, call for your tour today!

20. 2018-09-13
    soldstatus $87,000
21. 2018-09-13
    soldstatus $87,000
22. 2018-07-25
    listed $88,900
23. 1993-04-01
    soldstatus $19,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,417 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,419 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$2/yr ($0/mo · 0.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,202
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,417
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$896
• − Management: −$896
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$6,875
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,650
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,126/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Larue County
• NCES district ID: 2103180
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $39,784
• Composite: 27.66/100
• National rank: #6918
• State rank: #82 of 165 in KY

Livability — Upton

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #390
• US rank: #18769

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Upton, KY
• Population (ZIP): 2,948

Population outlook (Larue County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,441 people
• By 2030: 14,453 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 14,258 · -1.3%
• By 2050: 13,687 · -5.2%
• By 2075: 12,271 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 10,639 · -26.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Larue

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 19.1% · R 79.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: -36.3pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+57.3 2016: R+55.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+36.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.94%
• Current HPI: 296.9976
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+746.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $165,000 HKARMLS
• 2021-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2021-12-20 Sold (MLS) $115,000 HKARMLS
• 2021-11-03 Listed $115,000 HKARMLS
• 2018-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records
• 2018-09-13 Sold (MLS) $87,000 HKARMLS
• 2018-07-25 Listed $88,900 HKARMLS
• 1993-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $19,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.4%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,417 · +282.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.