169 Cedar St

Middletown, CT 06481

$296,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,591 sqft · Built 1958 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 79 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,860/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,552
• Tax + insurance: −$485
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$601
• Net cashflow: $222/mo
• Annual: $2,661/yr
• Cap rate: 7.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.21%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $82,880

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $296k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $222 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $286k (3.4% below list).
• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($278k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $278k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#17 in CT, #1,390 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Regional School District 13 (rural): math 49% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #52 of 153 in CT (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 6% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: John Lyman School (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B, #118 of 553 statewide, top 23%, 182 students, 12% FRL); Coginchaug Regional High School (math 52% / reading 77%, grade B-, #33 of 194 statewide, top 18%, 384 students, 16% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 278 units permitted in Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $184k; list at $296k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $83k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.7% in Middletown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.