3212 Oysterville Rd

Ocean Park, WA 98641

$165,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Pending · 63 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,400/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$215
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $816/mo
• Annual: $9,787/yr
• Cap rate: 12.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.91%
• DSCR: 2.02
• 1% rule: 1.45%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $816 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $155k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#216 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: commute D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Ocean Beach School District (rural): math 34% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #212 of 291 in WA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ocean Park Elementary (196 students, 76% FRL); Ilwaco High School (296 students, 64% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 90 units permitted in Pacific County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pacific County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $132k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 4.2% in Ocean Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.