3212 Oysterville Rd · Ocean Park, WA 98641

$165,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1940 0.54 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

A corner lot just a stone's throw from Willapa Bay, this enchanting parcel in the storied village of Oysterville offers opportunity to craft your personal sanctuary. Imagine your dream home rising amidst the sprawling gardens of this alluring West Coast haven, where old-world charm still reigns. The existing home stands stripped to studs—an open canvas awaiting your inspired vision. Embrace the lifestyle of historic Oysterville, where the pace of life slows and nature flourishes. Enjoy leisurely strolls to Oysterville Sea Farms, or partake in the seasonal delights of Willapa Bay, from summer sailing to birdwatching in this vibrant ecosystem. A rare opportunity to create a legacy home

Key facts

• Historic oysterville
• Sprawling gardens
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• SPRAWLING GARDENS
• HISTORIC OYSTERVILLE
• OYSTERVILLE SEA FARMS
• PICTURESQUE HIDEAWAYS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $816 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 4.2% in Ocean Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#216 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: commute D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Ocean Beach School District (rural): math 34% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #212 of 291 in WA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ocean Park Elementary (196 students, 76% FRL); Ilwaco High School (296 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 90 units permitted in Pacific County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Pacific County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $132k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.91%
• DSCR: 2.02
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $492,320
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3212 Oysterville Rd	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,360 (0%)	1mo	$145,000	$107	100
32812 Douglas Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+4%)	20mo	$510,000	$362	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $71,822
• Equity at exit: $74,191

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.96×
• Total profit: $182,905
• Equity at exit: $114,337

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98641

• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $959/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $816

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,368

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
33610 J Pl Ocean Park, WA	3.0	2.5	1632	$2,400	$1.47	43d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-21
   listed $165,000 Active
3. 2022-09-12
   soldstatus $132,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $959 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,617 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: +$658/yr (+$55/mo · 68.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥75°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$959
• − Insurance: −$1,622
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,304
• − Management: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $7,568
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,816
• After-tax cash flow: $7,971/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ocean Beach School District
• NCES district ID: 5306060
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $38,549
• Composite: 37.37/100
• National rank: #8929
• State rank: #212 of 291 in WA

Livability — Ocean Park

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #216
• US rank: #6161

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A- Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 221

Population outlook (Pacific County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,636 people
• By 2030: 20,137 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 19,041 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 18,504 · -10.3%
• By 2075: 17,403 · -15.7%
• By 2100: 16,241 · -21.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.83)
• Race & ethnicity: Two or more races 50% White 41% Native American 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Pacific

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 49.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.4pp toward R · 2008: 14.1pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: R+1.1 2016: R+6.9 2012: D+11.4 2008: D+14.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+24.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-21 Listed $165,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $132,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $959 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.