33072 Heritage Oak Dr

Pasadena Hills, FL 33545

$412,240D

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,896 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,109/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,162
• Tax + insurance: −$687
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$653
• Net cashflow: $-393/mo
• Annual: $-4,718/yr
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.09%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $115,427

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $412k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-393 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $355k (13.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $311k (24.6% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $311k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#723 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Watergrass Elementary School (math 50% / reading 62%, grade C+, #832 of 2,144 statewide, top 40%, 865 students, 41% FRL); Thomas E. Weightman Middle School (math 48% / reading 53%, grade C, #246 of 571 statewide, top 44%, 1,250 students, 40% FRL); Wesley Chapel High School (math 52% / reading 58%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 1,826 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 831 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 82d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.9% in Pasadena Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($119k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.