33072 Heritage Oak Dr · Pasadena Hills, FL 33545

$412,240

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,896 sqft · SingleFamily · 5 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $142/sqft · 36% below area Est $641k · 36% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-family home boasts five bedrooms across two stories. A versatile flex room sits off the foyer and a modern open-concept design brightens the kitchen, dining room and family room. The sprawling owner's suite enjoys privacy on the ground floor with a full-sized bathroom and walk-in closet, while the remaining four bedrooms and spacious loft are upstairs.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 4 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $412k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-393 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $355k (13.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $311k (24.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $311k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.9% in Pasadena Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#723 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Watergrass Elementary School (math 50% / reading 62%, grade C+, #832 of 2,144 statewide, top 40%, 865 students, 41% FRL); Thomas E. Weightman Middle School (math 48% / reading 53%, grade C, #246 of 571 statewide, top 44%, 1,250 students, 40% FRL); Wesley Chapel High School (math 52% / reading 58%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 1,826 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 831 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 82d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($119k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $310,851 (24.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.09%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $641,122
• List price: $412,240
• Delta: -35.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32015 Summerglade Dr	0.15mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,922 (+1%)	14mo	$680,500	$233	73
7384 Pool Compass Loop	0.30mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,848 (-2%)	4mo	$485,000	$170	71
7618 Pool Compass Loop	0.46mi	5/3.0	2,855 (-1%)	6mo	$650,000	$228	69
7101 Hatpin Loop	0.29mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,071 (+6%)	1mo	$730,000	$238	68
32502 Summerglade Dr	0.50mi	5/3.5	3,001 (+4%)	13mo	$420,000	$140	56
32613 Summerglade Dr	0.58mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,081 (+6%)	1mo	$610,000	$198	54
32242 Summerglade Dr	0.36mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,168 (+9%)	10mo	$560,000	$177	52
7496 Yale Harbor Dr	0.45mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,606 (-10%)	5mo	$540,000	$207	51
32202 Summerglade Dr	0.33mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,180 (+10%)	12mo	$560,000	$176	51
7207 Peregrina Loop	0.58mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,057 (+6%)	14mo	$700,000	$229	45
31865 Tortuga Shore Loop	0.65mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,142 (+8%)	4mo	$879,000	$280	43
32554 Silvercreek Way	0.38mi	5/4.0	3,327 (+15%)	14mo	$720,000	$216	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-100,905
• Equity at exit: $61,466

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-155,127
• Equity at exit: $35,643

Cash invested: $115,427 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 33 active · 15 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.4 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $515,000 ($188/sqft)
• Median days on market: 61 d
• This list price: 18% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +17.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33545

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 831
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,109 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,162
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$515 /mo · $6,184/yr
• Insurance: −$172
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$653
• Net cashflow: $-393

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,606

Max offer price $355,347

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-108	-5% $-251	+0% $-393	+5% $-536	+10% $-678
Rent	-10% $-639	-5% $-516	+0% $-393	+5% $-270	+10% $-148
Rate	-1.0pp $-186	-0.5pp $-288	base $-393	+0.5pp $-500	+1.0pp $-609

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,060
• Closing costs: $12,367
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7232 Seedpod Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	3.0	3474	$3,450	$0.99	119d	1	0.22mi
7545 Pool Compass Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	3.0	2585	$3,325	$1.29	119d	1	0.42mi
7465 Yale Harbor Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	3.0	2754	$3,200	$1.16	32d	1	0.47mi
31422 Bridgegate Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	3.0	2153	$2,700	$1.25	119d	1	0.72mi
7942 Roma Dune Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	3.0	2295	$2,995	$1.31	110d	1	0.81mi
7942 Roma Dune Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	3.0	2299	$2,995	$1.30	108d	1	0.81mi
31882 Tansy Bnd Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	2057	$2,750	$1.34	84d	1	0.87mi
8737 Bower Bass Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.5	2037	$2,750	$1.35	88d	1	0.94mi
7623 Tuscan Bay Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,600	$1.15	0d	1	1.00mi
7623 Tuscan Bay Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,600	$1.15	100d	1	1.00mi
7557 Tuscan Bay Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,500	$1.11	10d	1	1.02mi
7648 Sweeter Tide Trl Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	4.0	3761	$4,000	$1.06	98d	1	1.03mi
8052 Olive Brook Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	2161	$3,200	$1.48	44d	1	1.04mi
7572 Tuscan Bay Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.5	2007	$2,500	$1.25	10d	1	1.05mi
31825 Lily Arbor Way Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	2155	$2,600	$1.21	119d	1	1.06mi
31047 Stone Arch Ave Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1990	$1,800	$0.90	56d	1	1.06mi
31037 Baclan Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.5	2364	$2,700	$1.14	78d	1	1.07mi
31478 Penny Surf Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,545	$1.13	88d	1	1.07mi
31478 Penny Surf Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,545	$1.13	94d	1	1.07mi
8332 Juning Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	3.0	2371	$2,607	$1.10	10d	1	1.08mi
31470 Penny Surf Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	3.0	2447	$2,845	$1.16	110d	1	1.08mi
33234 Sycamore Leaf Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	4.0	3531	$3,995	$1.13	119d	1	1.13mi
33234 Sycamore Leaf Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	4.0	3531	$4,200	$1.19	85d	1	1.13mi
31000 Summer Sun Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	2.5	2823	$2,800	$0.99	119d	1	1.14mi
7792 Notched Pine Bnd Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	4.0	3531	$3,999	$1.13	72d	1	1.14mi
30936 Baclan Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1979	$2,200	$1.11	32d	1	1.17mi
8086 Pelican Reed Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,600	$1.15	42d	1	1.20mi
31284 Penny Surf Loop Unit 1 Wesley Chapel South, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,650	$1.17	84d	1	1.20mi
8379 Ender Hills Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	3.0	2371	$2,545	$1.07	7d	1	1.21mi
6667 Depue Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	3.0	2597	$3,000	$1.16	5d	1	1.25mi
8454 Ender Hills Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	3.5	2605	$2,850	$1.09	2d	1	1.26mi
8380 Claw Glades Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	3.0	2605	$2,600	$1.00	67d	1	1.28mi
31603 Barrel Wave Way Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	2.5	2217	$2,500	$1.13	94d	1	1.32mi
31603 Barrel Wave Way Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	3.0	2215	$2,650	$1.20	81d	1	1.32mi
9294 Forge Breeze Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,700	$1.19	23d	1	1.33mi
8694 Parsons Hill Blvd Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1939	$2,495	$1.29	10d	1	1.35mi
8769 Parsons Hill Blvd Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1939	$2,595	$1.34	44d	1	1.36mi
33424 Binding Ties Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	3.0	2597	$2,900	$1.12	3d	1	1.37mi
7726 Bulls Head Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	3.0	3393	$2,655	$0.78	0d	1	1.38mi
33444 Binding Ties Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	3.0	2595	$3,000	$1.16	117d	1	1.39mi

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,302
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,092
• − Property taxes: −$6,184
• − Insurance: −$2,061
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,984
• − Management: −$2,984
• − Depreciation: −$11,992
• Taxable loss: −$11,995
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,879
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,839/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good return on investment with minimal updates needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 61/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Woodlands Elementary School A FL #141/2,144 Nat'l #1,513/41,679 Middle Thomas E. Weightman Middle School C FL #246/571 Nat'l #3,367/14,009 High Wesley Chapel High School C FL #135/667 Nat'l #4,413/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Pasadena Hills

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #723
• US rank: #15499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pasadena Hills, FL
• County: Pasco County · 570,045 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,222
• Household income: $118,889
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 18% of renters

---

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 20% Black 14% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.59%
• Current HPI: 273.0769
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.68%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B