305 8th Ave N

Shelby, MT 59474

$148,000C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Pending · 300 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,244/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$776
• Tax + insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $68/mo
• Annual: $819/yr
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.98%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $41,440

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $148k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $68 ($819/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (16.0% below list).
• It's been on market 300 days — a 12% lower offer ($130k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $124k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#9 in MT, #1,820 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Shelby H S (town): math 20% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #182 of 339 in MT (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shelby Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #135 of 293 statewide, top 52%, 281 students, 0% FRL); Shelby 7-8 (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #89 of 146 statewide, top 65%, 76 students, 0% FRL); Shelby High School (math 30% / reading 30%, grade F, #61 of 132 statewide, top 49%, 120 students, 0% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP.
• Toole County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.4% in Shelby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 300 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.