305 8th Ave N · Shelby, MT 59474

$148,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 300 Days on market

Built 1940 8,498 sqft lot Est $181k · 18% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Oak cabinetry
• Fully fenced
• Spacious dining room

Tags

• EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• OAK CABINETRY
• MAIN FLOOR LAUNDRY
• SPACIOUS DINING ROOM
• FULLY FENCED
• DETACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Garage (1 space); Additional parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected / available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Exterior features: Crawl space concrete basement; Lot approximately 61 x 140 (about 8,498 sq ft); Residential zoning

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Fireplace (1); Garden; Rain gutters; Front porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $148k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $68 ($819/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (16.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $124k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.4% in Shelby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#9 in MT, #1,820 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Shelby H S (town): math 20% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #182 of 339 in MT (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shelby Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #135 of 293 statewide, top 52%, 281 students, 0% FRL); Shelby 7-8 (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #89 of 146 statewide, top 65%, 76 students, 0% FRL); Shelby High School (math 30% / reading 30%, grade F, #61 of 132 statewide, top 49%, 120 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Toole County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 300 days — a 12% lower offer ($130k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $124,363 (16.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 300 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.98%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $181,104
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
201 9th Ave N	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,228 (-0%)	11mo	$182,500	$149	79
311 8th Ave S	0.28mi	3/3.0	1,188 (-4%)	2mo	$205,000	$173	71
327 9th Ave N	0.08mi	3/1.5	1,353 (+10%)	13mo	$199,000	$147	67
324 7th Ave S	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,096 (-11%)	1mo	$120,000	$109	62
210 Montana Ave	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,216 (-1%)	11mo	$60,000	$49	61
620 Hill Ave	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,320 (+7%)	6mo	$227,000	$172	57
507 7th Ave S	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,106 (-10%)	19mo	$125,000	$113	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-19,686
• Equity at exit: $22,067

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-11,743
• Equity at exit: $12,796

Cash invested: $41,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59474

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,244 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$776
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $918/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,157

Max offer price $148,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $152	-5% $110	+0% $68	+5% $26	+10% $-16
Rent	-10% $-30	-5% $19	+0% $68	+5% $117	+10% $166
Rate	-1.0pp $143	-0.5pp $106	base $68	+0.5pp $30	+1.0pp $-9

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,000
• Closing costs: $4,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $148,000 Pending 300 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $148,000 Active 300 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $148,000 Active 299 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $148,000 Active 297 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $148,000 Active 296 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $148,000 Active 293 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $148,000 Active 292 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $148,000 Active 291 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $148,000 Active 289 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $148,000 Active 287 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $148,000 Active 286 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $148,000 Active 285 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $148,000 Active 284 DOM
14. 2026-04-21
    status Active
15. 2026-04-06
    status Pending
16. 2025-10-27
    price $148,000
17. 2025-08-05
    listed $158,000 Active
18. 2015-07-01
    soldstatus
19. 2003-03-31
    soldstatus
20. 2002-06-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MT · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $918 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,243 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$326/yr (+$27/mo · 35.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,924
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,290
• − Property taxes: −$918
• − Insurance: −$740
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,194
• − Management: −$1,194
• − Depreciation: −$4,305
• Taxable loss: −$1,718
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$412
• After-tax cash flow: $1,231/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelby H S
• NCES district ID: 3023910
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,862
• Composite: 32.34/100
• National rank: #10892
• State rank: #182 of 339 in MT

Livability — Shelby

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #1820

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shelby, MT
• Population (ZIP): 3,391

Population outlook (Toole County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,767 people
• By 2030: 4,581 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 4,249 · -10.9%
• By 2050: 4,027 · -15.5%
• By 2075: 3,847 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 3,917 · -17.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Native American 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Toole

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.5) · D 20.3% · R 76.8% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.2pp toward R · 2008: -27.3pp · 2024: -56.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.5 2020: R+53.2 2016: R+54.3 2012: R+40.8 2008: R+27.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.61%
• Current HPI: 155.2065
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Relisted — MRMLS
• 2026-04-06 Pending — MRMLS
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $148,000 MRMLS
• 2025-08-05 Listed $158,000 MRMLS
• 2015-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-03-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-06-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $918 · -31.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.