848 Brown Deer Rd

Ketchikan, AK 99901

$445,000F

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,250 sqft · Built 1977 · MultiFamily · Active · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,463/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,334
• Tax + insurance: −$468
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $-856/mo
• Annual: $-10,271/yr
• Cap rate: 3.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.24%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 0.55%
• Cash to close: $124,600

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $445k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-856 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (34.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (44.7% below list).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $246k (44.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#12 in AK, #3,743 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F.
• Ketchikan Gateway Borough School District (town): math 39% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #7 of 21 in AK (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Houghtaling Elementary (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #75 of 156 statewide, top 52%, 310 students, 59% FRL); Schoenbar Middle School (math 30% / reading 36%, grade F, #26 of 36 statewide, top 71%, 269 students, 40% FRL); Ketchikan High School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #17 of 61 statewide, top 32%, 498 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 73 units permitted in Ketchikan Gateway Borough in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ketchikan Gateway County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.