848 Brown Deer Rd · Ketchikan, AK 99901

$445,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,250 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1977 8,182 sqft lot Est $450k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Conveniently located in-town, single family 3 bedroom/1.5 bath upper with lower 2 bedroom/1 bath opportunity. Well-updated with metal roof (2024), heat pump (2023), stackable washer/dryer, full kitchen updates - cabinets through appliances. House has dual oil & electric heat choice. Plenty of parking in front and back of property. Surrounded by treeline and creek below. This is a must see.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Heat pump
• Plenty of parking

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• HEAT PUMP
• FULL KITCHEN UPDATES
• DUAL OIL AND ELECTRIC HEAT
• PLENTY OF PARKING
• TREELINE AND CREEK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property located on Brown Deer Rd.
• Financial info: Financial details not provided
• HOA & community: HOA details not provided

Exterior

• Parking: No garage or carport
• Security: Security details not provided
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Detached residential property; Built in 1977; Foundation described as: Other
• Construction: Construction materials and roof details not provided
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.19 acres (about 8,182 sq ft)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen details not provided
• Bedrooms: Five bedrooms
• Flooring: Flooring details not provided
• Bathrooms: Three bathrooms (2 full, 1 half)
• Heating & cooling: Heating and cooling details not provided
• Interior features: Total rooms information not provided
• Laundry & utility: Laundry details not provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $445k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-856 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (34.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (44.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (44.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#12 in AK, #3,743 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F.
• Ketchikan Gateway Borough School District (town): math 39% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #7 of 21 in AK (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Houghtaling Elementary (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #75 of 156 statewide, top 52%, 310 students, 59% FRL); Schoenbar Middle School (math 30% / reading 36%, grade F, #26 of 36 statewide, top 71%, 269 students, 40% FRL); Ketchikan High School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #17 of 61 statewide, top 32%, 498 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 73 units permitted in Ketchikan Gateway Borough in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ketchikan Gateway County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,288 (44.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.24%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 15.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $450,000
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1227 Black Bear Rd	0.18mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,400 (+7%)	8mo	$479,000	$200	65
611 Hardcastle Way	0.70mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,073 (-8%)	8mo	$379,000	$183	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-126,753
• Equity at exit: $66,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.45×
• Total profit: $-181,100
• Equity at exit: $38,475

Cash invested: $124,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99901

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 15.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,463 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,334
• Tax from tax record: −$283 /mo · $3,390/yr
• Insurance: −$185
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $-856

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,546

Max offer price $293,802

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $111,250
• Closing costs: $13,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $445,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $445,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $445,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $445,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $445,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $445,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 394-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $445,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,390 · $283/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,343 · $362/mo
• Expected delta: +$953/yr (+$79/mo · 28.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,555
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,927
• − Property taxes: −$3,390
• − Insurance: −$2,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,364
• − Management: −$2,364
• − Depreciation: −$12,945
• Taxable loss: −$18,662
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,479
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,792/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ketchikan Gateway Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200150
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,859
• Composite: 36.86/100
• National rank: #4550
• State rank: #7 of 21 in AK

Livability — Ketchikan

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #3743

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime D+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ketchikan, AK
• Population (ZIP): 13,875

Population outlook (Ketchikan Gateway County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,287 people
• By 2030: 14,487 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 14,750 · +3.2%
• By 2050: 14,908 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 15,319 · +7.2%
• By 2100: 15,204 · +6.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Native American 13% Two or more races 13% Asian 9% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Slovak 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 7% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ketchikan Gateway

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.31%
• Current HPI: 190.039
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+97.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $445,000 AKMLS
• 2022-11-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-06-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-12-30 Listed $225,000 AKMLS
• 2014-08-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-05-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-12-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,390 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.