293 Bray Rd

Bliss, NY 14009

$155,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Built 1997 · Manufactured · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,088/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax + insurance: −$189
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $-142/mo
• Annual: $-1,705/yr
• Cap rate: 5.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.93%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $43,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-142 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $130k (16.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (29.8% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $109k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,065 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Yorkshire-Pioneer Central School District (town): math 50% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #358 of 590 in NY (top 61%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Arcade Elementary School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 515 students, 45% FRL); Pioneer Middle School (math 35% / reading 52%, grade D, #366 of 729 statewide, top 51%, 662 students, 52% FRL); Pioneer Senior High School (math 98% / reading 95%, grade A+, #59 of 1,100 statewide, top 6%, 658 students, 42% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 65% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Yorkshire-Pioneer Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $66k; list at $155k implies a 135% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.