3705 La Junta

Big Spring, TX 79720

$185,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,670 sqft · Built 1963 · SingleFamily · Active · 53 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,396/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$397
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $-265/mo
• Annual: $-3,175/yr
• Cap rate: 4.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.13%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-265 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $138k (25.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (24.6% below list).
• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $138k (25.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#948 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Big Spring ISD (town): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #641 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Marcy El (360 students, 76% FRL); Big Spring J H (math 25% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,662 statewide, top 66%, 516 students, 70% FRL); Big Spring H S (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,228 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 1,084 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: 270 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 69 units permitted in Howard County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Howard County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.