Burlington Plan

O'Fallon, MO 63385

$305,900F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,566 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 278 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,421/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,059
• Tax + insurance: −$655
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $-801/mo
• Annual: $-9,617/yr
• Cap rate: 3.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.75%
• DSCR: 0.61
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $109,959

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $306k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-801 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (9.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (20.9% below list).
• It's been on market 278 days — a 12% lower offer ($269k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $242k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Wentzville R-IV (suburban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 324 in MO (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Duello Elem. (math 43% / reading 55%, grade D, #331 of 1,115 statewide, top 30%, 644 students, 3% FRL); Wentzville South Middle (math 49% / reading 51%, grade C, #68 of 391 statewide, top 18%, 1,131 students, 14% FRL); Timberland High (math 36% / reading 63%, grade D, #124 of 521 statewide, top 28%, 1,676 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 700 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 6% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 3.2% in O'Fallon — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 278 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.