Burlington Plan · O'Fallon, MO 63385

$305,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,566 sqft · SingleFamily · 278 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This stunning two story home features 2 or 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, plus an optional powder room on the main floor. You'll love the open floorplan with the spacious living room that flows to the kitchen and breakfast area. There's plenty of cabinetry, plus you can personalize with a breakfast bar for additional seating. Upstairs you'll find the master suite with a large walk in closet, secondary closet, and private bathroom, plus a second bedroom, loft and additional full bath. The Burlington includes 2 car garage, soffits & fascia and much more! Additional choices include 3 bedroom plan, 2nd floor laundry, luxury master bath, powder room, and bay windows.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 278 days

🏗️ New construction. The $305,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $392,709.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $306k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-801 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (9.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (20.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 3.2% in O'Fallon — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Wentzville R-IV (suburban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 324 in MO (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Duello Elem. (math 43% / reading 55%, grade D, #331 of 1,115 statewide, top 30%, 644 students, 3% FRL); Wentzville South Middle (math 49% / reading 51%, grade C, #68 of 391 statewide, top 18%, 1,131 students, 14% FRL); Timberland High (math 36% / reading 63%, grade D, #124 of 521 statewide, top 28%, 1,676 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 700 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 278 days — a 12% lower offer ($269k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 6% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $242,089 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 278 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.75%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $392,709
• List price: $305,900
• Delta: -22.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
505 Wheatfield Cir	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,629 (+4%)	3mo	$385,418	$237	76
38 Wisdom Ct	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+15%)	1mo	$400,000	$222	70
706 Barnwood Hill Dr	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,465 (-6%)	3mo	$459,900	$314	66
708 Barnwood Hill Dr	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,492 (-5%)	6mo	$469,900	$315	66
133 Harrow Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,539 (-2%)	6mo	$389,900	$253	61
435 Sunset Hollow Dr	0.40mi	3/2.5	1,408 (-10%)	6mo	$319,900	$227	57
554 Wheatfield Cir	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,749 (+12%)	7mo	$449,900	$257	57
437 Sunset Hollow Dr	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,408 (-10%)	8mo	$289,900	$206	56
929 Little Fieldstone Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-11%)	8mo	$355,000	$254	55
2 Harrow Ct	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,728 (+10%)	3mo	$350,000	$203	47
3 Harrow Ct	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,728 (+10%)	9mo	$387,286	$224	42
102 Harrow Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,728 (+10%)	8mo	$395,497	$229	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-112,281
• Equity at exit: $58,554

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-153,472
• Equity at exit: $33,954

Cash invested: $109,959 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63385

• Home prices YoY: -31.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 700
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,421 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,059
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$491 /mo · $5,891/yr
• Insurance: −$164
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $-801

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,435

Max offer price $276,742

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-530	-5% $-666	+0% $-801	+5% $-937	+10% $-1,073
Rent	-10% $-993	-5% $-897	+0% $-801	+5% $-706	+10% $-610
Rate	-1.0pp $-604	-0.5pp $-702	base $-801	+0.5pp $-903	+1.0pp $-1,007

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,177
• Closing costs: $11,781
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
567 Wheatfield Cir Wentzville, MO	4.0	2.5	1756	$2,700	$1.54	5d	1	0.34mi
2 Harrow Ct Wentzville, MO	3.0	2.5	1728	$2,300	$1.33	3d	1	0.69mi
229 Greengate Dr Lake Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.5	1824	$2,471	$1.35	45d	1	1.09mi
56 Helena Ct Wentzville, MO	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,300	$1.28	45d	1	1.18mi
569 Parkgate Dr Lake Saint Louis, MO	3.0	4.0	1985	$2,350	$1.18	45d	1	1.19mi
307 Willow Manor Dr Lake St Louis, MO	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	1617	$2,850	$1.76	0d	21	1.39mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $305,900 Active 278 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $305,900 Active 275 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $305,900 Active 274 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $305,900 Active 273 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $305,900 Active 272 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $305,900 Active 270 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $305,900 Active 269 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $305,900 Active 266 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $305,900 Active 265 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $305,900 Active 264 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $305,900 Active 261 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $305,900 Active 260 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $305,900 Active 259 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $305,900 Active 258 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $305,900 Active 257 DOM
16. 2026-03-01
    price $305,900 674-char remark

    Show marketing remark (674 chars)

    This stunning two story home features 2 or 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, plus an optional powder room on the main floor. You'll love the open floorplan with the spacious living room that flows to the kitchen and breakfast area. There's plenty of cabinetry, plus you can personalize with a breakfast bar for additional seating. Upstairs you'll find the master suite with a large walk in closet, secondary closet, and private bathroom, plus a second bedroom, loft and additional full bath. The Burlington includes 2 car garage, soffits & fascia and much more! Additional choices include 3 bedroom plan, 2nd floor laundry, luxury master bath, powder room, and bay windows.

17. 2026-02-01
    price $302,900 674-char remark

    Show marketing remark (674 chars)

    This stunning two story home features 2 or 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, plus an optional powder room on the main floor. You'll love the open floorplan with the spacious living room that flows to the kitchen and breakfast area. There's plenty of cabinetry, plus you can personalize with a breakfast bar for additional seating. Upstairs you'll find the master suite with a large walk in closet, secondary closet, and private bathroom, plus a second bedroom, loft and additional full bath. The Burlington includes 2 car garage, soffits & fascia and much more! Additional choices include 3 bedroom plan, 2nd floor laundry, luxury master bath, powder room, and bay windows.

18. 2026-01-16
    status Active 674-char remark

    Show marketing remark (674 chars)

    This stunning two story home features 2 or 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, plus an optional powder room on the main floor. You'll love the open floorplan with the spacious living room that flows to the kitchen and breakfast area. There's plenty of cabinetry, plus you can personalize with a breakfast bar for additional seating. Upstairs you'll find the master suite with a large walk in closet, secondary closet, and private bathroom, plus a second bedroom, loft and additional full bath. The Burlington includes 2 car garage, soffits & fascia and much more! Additional choices include 3 bedroom plan, 2nd floor laundry, luxury master bath, powder room, and bay windows.

19. 2025-10-31
    historical 674-char remark

    Show marketing remark (674 chars)

    This stunning two story home features 2 or 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, plus an optional powder room on the main floor. You'll love the open floorplan with the spacious living room that flows to the kitchen and breakfast area. There's plenty of cabinetry, plus you can personalize with a breakfast bar for additional seating. Upstairs you'll find the master suite with a large walk in closet, secondary closet, and private bathroom, plus a second bedroom, loft and additional full bath. The Burlington includes 2 car garage, soffits & fascia and much more! Additional choices include 3 bedroom plan, 2nd floor laundry, luxury master bath, powder room, and bay windows.

20. 2025-08-31
    price $299,900 674-char remark

    Show marketing remark (674 chars)

    This stunning two story home features 2 or 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, plus an optional powder room on the main floor. You'll love the open floorplan with the spacious living room that flows to the kitchen and breakfast area. There's plenty of cabinetry, plus you can personalize with a breakfast bar for additional seating. Upstairs you'll find the master suite with a large walk in closet, secondary closet, and private bathroom, plus a second bedroom, loft and additional full bath. The Burlington includes 2 car garage, soffits & fascia and much more! Additional choices include 3 bedroom plan, 2nd floor laundry, luxury master bath, powder room, and bay windows.

21. 2025-07-01
    listed $289,900 Active 674-char remark

    Show marketing remark (674 chars)

    This stunning two story home features 2 or 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, plus an optional powder room on the main floor. You'll love the open floorplan with the spacious living room that flows to the kitchen and breakfast area. There's plenty of cabinetry, plus you can personalize with a breakfast bar for additional seating. Upstairs you'll find the master suite with a large walk in closet, secondary closet, and private bathroom, plus a second bedroom, loft and additional full bath. The Burlington includes 2 car garage, soffits & fascia and much more! Additional choices include 3 bedroom plan, 2nd floor laundry, luxury master bath, powder room, and bay windows.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,051
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,998
• − Property taxes: −$5,891
• − Insurance: −$1,964
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,324
• − Management: −$2,324
• − Depreciation: −$11,424
• Taxable loss: −$16,874
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,050
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,567/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wentzville R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2931650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $74,961
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2994
• State rank: #32 of 324 in MO

Livability — O'Fallon

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Charles County · 399,703 people
• City population: 45,862
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 51,330
• Household income: $112,199
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 662.0

Population outlook (St. Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,857 people
• By 2030: 461,707 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 503,222 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 534,684 · +22.1%
• By 2075: 597,047 · +36.4%
• By 2100: 609,682 · +39.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Charles

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 40.8% · R 57.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.7pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+17.5 2016: R+26.4 2012: R+21.0 2008: R+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.98%
• Current HPI: 216.4917
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.96%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+5.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $305,900 Zillow
• 2026-02-01 Price Changed $302,900 Zillow
• 2026-01-16 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-31 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-08-31 Price Changed $299,900 Zillow
• 2025-07-01 Listed $289,900 Zillow