9661 Curry Hwy

Arley, AL 35503

$442,500D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,485 sqft · Built 2007 · Other · Pending · 90 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,263/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,321
• Tax + insurance: −$738
• HOA: −$192
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$895
• Net cashflow: $118/mo
• Annual: $1,415/yr
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.14%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $123,900

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $442k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $118 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $426k (3.7% below list).
• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($416k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $416k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#187 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Winston County (rural): math 13% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #91 of 129 in AL (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1 units permitted in Winston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Winston County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $250k; list at $442k implies a 77% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?