9661 Curry Hwy · Arley, AL 35503

$442,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,485 sqft · Other · 90 Days on market

Built 2007 $298/sqft · at area comps Est $428k · at est. $192/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Smith Lake (Duncan Bridge Resort) Unit 314 is offered turn key ready to rent or enjoy! This ground floor unit at the popular Duncan Bridge Resort has been completely updated. The complex recently had many upgrades and the property and unit are both in pristine condition. With the sale of this unit, you are deeded a covered boat slip. Amenities include pool, grilling areas, gated parking. HOA are $575 per month which includes exterior insurance, parking, garbage, sewer, and boat dock. From this location, you are only 5 minutes to Ace Hardware, Gateway Grocery store, and many other amenities. If you are looking for low maintenance lake living, you must schedule this today! Rental history available.

Key facts

• Covered boat slip
• Grilling areas
• Ground floor unit

Tags

• GROUND FLOOR UNIT
• COVERED BOAT SLIP
• POOL
• GRILLING AREAS
• GATED PARKING
• UPDATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $442k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $118 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $426k (3.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $416k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#187 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Winston County (rural): math 13% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #91 of 129 in AL (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1 units permitted in Winston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winston County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($416k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $250k; list at $442k implies a 77% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $415,950 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.14%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $428,379
• List price: $442,500
• Delta: 3.30%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-64,014
• Equity at exit: $65,978

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-45,334
• Equity at exit: $38,259

Cash invested: $123,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35503

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,263 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,321
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$553 /mo · $6,638/yr
• Insurance: −$184
• HOA: −$192
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$895
• Net cashflow: $118

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,114

Max offer price $442,500

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $110,625
• Closing costs: $13,275
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9661 Curry Hwy #224 Jasper, AL	3.0	2.0	1450	$5,000	$3.45	43d	1	0.02mi
9661 Curry Hwy Unit 132 Jasper, AL	2.0	2.0	1400	$3,500	$2.50	3d	1	0.02mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $192 · $2,304/yr
• Likely covers: sewertrashpoolsecurity

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $442,500 Pending 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $442,500 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $442,500 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $442,500 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $442,500 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $442,500 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $442,500 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $442,500 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-03-10
   listed $442,500 Active 705-char remark

   Show marketing remark (705 chars)

   Smith Lake (Duncan Bridge Resort) Unit 314 is offered turn key ready to rent or enjoy! This ground floor unit at the popular Duncan Bridge Resort has been completely updated. The complex recently had many upgrades and the property and unit are both in pristine condition. With the sale of this unit, you are deeded a covered boat slip. Amenities include pool, grilling areas, gated parking. HOA are $575 per month which includes exterior insurance, parking, garbage, sewer, and boat dock. From this location, you are only 5 minutes to Ace Hardware, Gateway Grocery store, and many other amenities. If you are looking for low maintenance lake living, you must schedule this today! Rental history available.

10. 2020-12-10
    soldstatus $250,000 233-char remark

    Show marketing remark (233 chars)

    UNIT 221. Waterfront condo for sale. End unit. Lake views from all 3 bedrooms! Ceramic tile throughout, so you don't have to worry about getting the floors wet. Pool, patios, grilling, and covered boat slip included. Gated community.

11. 2020-10-02
    listed $259,900 233-char remark

    Show marketing remark (233 chars)

    UNIT 221. Waterfront condo for sale. End unit. Lake views from all 3 bedrooms! Ceramic tile throughout, so you don't have to worry about getting the floors wet. Pool, patios, grilling, and covered boat slip included. Gated community.

12. 2012-10-31
    listed $269,000
13. 2012-10-30
    soldstatus $259,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,158
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,787
• − Property taxes: −$6,638
• − Insurance: −$2,212
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,093
• − Management: −$4,093
• − HOA: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$12,873
• Taxable loss: −$5,841
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,402
• After-tax cash flow: $2,816/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winston County
• NCES district ID: 0103580
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $35,471
• Composite: 21.39/100
• National rank: #8352
• State rank: #91 of 129 in AL

Livability — Arley

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #15542

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,601

Population outlook (Winston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,474 people
• By 2030: 21,568 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 19,710 · -12.3%
• By 2050: 17,950 · -20.1%
• By 2075: 14,468 · -35.6%
• By 2100: 11,554 · -48.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 2% Black 1% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Iranian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+83.6) · D 7.9% · R 91.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.4pp toward R · 2008: -63.3pp · 2024: -83.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+83.6 2020: R+81.7 2016: R+81.5 2012: R+72.3 2008: R+63.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.26%
• Current HPI: 172.9286
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+70.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Listed $442,500 Walker County Area MLS
• 2020-12-10 Sold (MLS) $250,000 Walker County Area MLS
• 2020-10-02 Listed $259,900 Walker County Area MLS
• 2012-10-31 Listed $269,000 Walker County Area MLS
• 2012-10-30 Sold (MLS) $259,000 Walker County Area MLS