23034 True Fortune Dr

Katy, TX 77493

$285,000D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,452 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,882/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax + insurance: −$1,159
• HOA: −$63
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$605
• Net cashflow: $-440/mo
• Annual: $-5,281/yr
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.62%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $79,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $285k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-440 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (18.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $285k).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $234k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert King El (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 981 students, 68% FRL); Stockdick J H (math 41% / reading 51%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,313 students, 55% FRL); Paetow H S (math 47% / reading 64%, grade C, #364 of 1,632 statewide, top 23%, 3,537 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 27% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 48% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Katy ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.1% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 4476 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 95d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.4% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?