23034 True Fortune Dr

Houston, TX 77493

$299,000D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,452 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,722/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$1,088
• HOA: −$63
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$572
• Net cashflow: $-568/mo
• Annual: $-6,819/yr
• Cap rate: 4.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.14%
• DSCR: 0.64
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $299k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-568 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (22.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (8.9% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $231k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert King El (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 981 students, 68% FRL); Stockdick J H (math 41% / reading 51%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,313 students, 55% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 27% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2742 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.