23034 True Fortune Dr · Houston, TX 77493

$300,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,452 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 4,800 sqft lot $122/sqft · 20% below area Est $375k · 20% under $63/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great standard features, including granite countertops in kitchen and all baths, 42 inch cabinets, whirlpool brand appliances, tankless water heater, full sod front and back with irrigation, home automation powered by Google, large walk-in showers, coach lights and more!

Key facts

• 4,800 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2022

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Community Solutions association; Annual association fee of $750

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2022; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 13 x 16); Bedroom on second floor (approx. 11 x 15); Bedroom on second floor (approx. 12 x 10); Bedroom on second floor (approx. 11 x 11)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: 4 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-574 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (22.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (9.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert King El (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 981 students, 68% FRL); Stockdick J H (math 41% / reading 51%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,313 students, 55% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 27% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2729 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $231,213 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.20%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $374,884
• List price: $300,000
• Delta: -19.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23110 True Fortune Dr	0.06mi	4/2.5	2,275 (-7%)	5mo	$299,000	$131	81
23214 Penstemon Trl	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,498 (+2%)	7mo	$375,000	$150	69
23231 Wise Walk Dr	0.38mi	4/2.5	2,166 (-12%)	2mo	$320,000	$148	61
23010 Needlegrass Rd	0.67mi	4/3.5	2,493 (+2%)	4mo	$365,000	$146	58
23611 Cinnamon Tree Ln	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,337 (-5%)	2mo	$427,110	$183	55
23538 Cinnamon Tree Ln	0.75mi	4/3.0	2,336 (-5%)	1mo	$404,003	$173	55
23511 Cinnamon Tree Ln	0.75mi	4/3.0	2,336 (-5%)	1mo	$427,192	$183	54
23606 Cinnamon Tree Ln	0.70mi	4/3.5	2,579 (+5%)	1mo	$452,508	$175	54
23623 Cinnamon Tree Ln	0.75mi	4/3.0	2,336 (-5%)	2mo	$379,990	$163	54
6010 Birchwood Cliff Trl	0.57mi	4/3.5	2,702 (+10%)	0mo	$399,000	$148	52
23619 Cinnamon Tree Ln	0.75mi	4/3.0	2,241 (-9%)	1mo	$319,990	$143	48
23610 Cinnamon Tree Ln	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,168 (-12%)	2mo	$435,994	$201	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-92,702
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -80.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.87×
• Total profit: $-156,831
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2729
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,722 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$963 /mo · $11,561/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$572
• Net cashflow: $-574

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,449

Max offer price $231,213

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-404	-5% $-489	+0% $-574	+5% $-659	+10% $-744
Rent	-10% $-789	-5% $-681	+0% $-574	+5% $-466	+10% $-359
Rate	-1.0pp $-423	-0.5pp $-498	base $-574	+0.5pp $-652	+1.0pp $-731

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5710 Fresh View Ct Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2313	$2,495	$1.08	4d	1	0.39mi
23030 Cunningham Falls Trl Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1213	$2,900	$2.39	0d	242	0.42mi
5103 Visionary Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1692	$3,096	$1.83	4d	9	0.62mi
22824 Frassino Pl Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,629	$1.30	4d	1	0.68mi
22808 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2004	$2,499	$1.25	1d	1	0.73mi
22865 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,759	$1.37	17d	1	0.74mi
22728 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1667	$2,369	$1.42	26d	1	0.74mi
22738 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,539	$1.36	21d	1	0.75mi
22716 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,439	$1.31	7d	1	0.75mi
22616 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,539	$1.36	17d	1	0.75mi
22614 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,539	$1.36	15d	1	0.75mi
22622 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,569	$1.37	45d	1	0.76mi
22718 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,439	$1.30	7d	1	0.76mi
22855 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1667	$2,399	$1.44	15d	1	0.76mi
22851 Terazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.0	1740	$3,304	$1.90	0d	1	0.76mi
22624 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,569	$1.38	45d	1	0.76mi
22722 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,559	$1.27	19d	1	0.76mi
22720 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2004	$2,559	$1.28	19d	1	0.77mi
22626 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2004	$2,699	$1.35	45d	1	0.77mi
22628 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,659	$1.32	17d	1	0.78mi
22737 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,649	$1.41	45d	1	0.78mi
22719 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2004	$2,559	$1.28	19d	1	0.79mi
22717 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,629	$1.30	7d	1	0.79mi
22713 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1667	$2,419	$1.45	15d	1	0.81mi
22615 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,569	$1.38	45d	1	0.82mi
22613 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,569	$1.37	45d	1	0.83mi
22611 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,569	$1.38	45d	1	0.84mi
22700 Elyson Falls Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1658	$2,925	$1.76	1d	1	1.09mi
4411 Andorno Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2094	$2,221	$1.06	26d	1	1.20mi
5007 Royal Amber Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2270	$1,975	$0.87	45d	1	1.28mi
22843 Castello Lakes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2036	$2,148	$1.06	24d	1	1.32mi
4110 Rapallo Ct Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2300	$2,600	$1.13	7d	1	1.44mi
24246 Palomino Sage Trl Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1860	$2,305	$1.24	46d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $300,000 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $300,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $300,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $300,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $300,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $300,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $300,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $300,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $335,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $335,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $335,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $335,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $335,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-04-28
    listed $335,000 Active 447-char remark
16. 2025-04-22
    historical $2,350
17. 2025-03-08
    listed $2,350
18. 2025-03-07
    historical $2,500
19. 2025-01-24
    listed $2,500
20. 2025-01-20
    historical $2,500
21. 2025-01-07
    listed $2,500
22. 2025-01-07
    historical $2,500
23. 2024-11-19
    listed $2,500
24. 2024-11-16
    historical $2,500
25. 2024-09-28
    listed $2,500
26. 2022-06-30
    soldstatus Sold 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    Great standard features, including granite countertops in kitchen and all baths, 42 inch cabinets, whirlpool brand appliances, tankless water heater, full sod front and back with irrigation, home automation powered by Google, large walk-in showers, coach lights and more!

27. 2022-04-12
    status Pending 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    Great standard features, including granite countertops in kitchen and all baths, 42 inch cabinets, whirlpool brand appliances, tankless water heater, full sod front and back with irrigation, home automation powered by Google, large walk-in showers, coach lights and more!

28. 2022-04-12
    listed $370,597 Active 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    Great standard features, including granite countertops in kitchen and all baths, 42 inch cabinets, whirlpool brand appliances, tankless water heater, full sod front and back with irrigation, home automation powered by Google, large walk-in showers, coach lights and more!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $11,561 · $963/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,561 · $963/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,669
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$11,561
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,614
• − Management: −$2,614
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$11,907
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,858
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,029/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained, two-story home offers a good condition with modern features and a good curb appeal. It is ready for a new owner to move in and enjoy.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood or tile — Hardwood or tile flooring is more durable and adds value
• Both Install smart home automation — Modernizes home and adds value for potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood or tile — Hardwood or tile flooring is more durable and adds value ↑
• Both Install smart home automation — Modernizes home and adds value for potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $300,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $335,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-22 Rental Removed $2,350 HARMLS
• 2025-03-08 Listed for Rent $2,350 HARMLS
• 2025-03-07 Rental Removed $2,500 HARMLS
• 2025-01-24 Listed for Rent $2,500 HARMLS
• 2025-01-20 Rental Removed $2,500 HARMLS
• 2025-01-07 Listed for Rent $2,500 HARMLS
• 2025-01-07 Rental Removed $2,500 HARMLS
• 2024-11-19 Listed for Rent $2,500 HARMLS
• 2024-11-16 Rental Removed $2,500 HARMLS
• 2024-09-28 Listed for Rent $2,500 HARMLS
• 2022-06-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-04-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-04-12 Listed $370,597 HARMLS

Property tax history

+100.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,561 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.