18735 Magnolia Ct

Hidden Valley Lake, CA 95467

$329,900C-

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1980 · MultiFamily · Active · 98 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,216/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,730
• Tax + insurance: −$803
• HOA: −$328
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$675
• Net cashflow: $-320/mo
• Annual: $-3,839/yr
• Cap rate: 6.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.39%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $92,372

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $330k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-320 ($-4k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-160/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (17.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $322k (2.5% below list).
• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $273k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $456 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#785 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Middletown Unified (rural): math 24% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #291 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $148k; list at $330k implies a 123% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.1% in Hidden Valley Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.