18735 Magnolia Ct · Hidden Valley Lake, CA 95467

$329,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 960 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 98 Days on market

Built 1980 8,276 sqft lot $344/sqft · 86% above area Est $356k · 7% under $328/mo HOA · 20% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Duplex opportunity! What a wonderful income opportunity on quiet cul-de-sac! This fully rented duplex with satisfied happy long-term tenants is truly a no brainer. Units have been well maintained in mostly original condition and each features 2 bedrooms, 2 baths and a 1 car garage with laundry hook ups. Easy maintenance property is about half driveway, for maximum parking and minimum upkeep.

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-320 ($-4k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-160/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (17.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $322k (2.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $273k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.1% in Hidden Valley Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#785 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Middletown Unified (rural): math 24% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #291 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $456 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $148k; list at $330k implies a 123% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $273,385 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
7. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
8. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
9. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.39%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $355,563
• List price: $329,900
• Delta: -7.22%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-27,474
• Equity at exit: $98,077

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-2,795
• Equity at exit: $119,732

Cash invested: $92,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95467

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 17.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,216 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,730
• Tax from tax record: −$239 /mo · $2,862/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$328
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$675
• Net cashflow: $-320

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,621

Max offer price $273,385

Occupancy floor —

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	2	$3,216
Total (2 units)			$3,216

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,475
• Closing costs: $9,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18692 Horseshoe Rd Unit A Hidden Valley Lake, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,850	$1.95	20d	1	0.03mi
19618 Stinson Rd Hidden Valley Lake, CA	1.0	1.0	821	$1,700	$2.07	43d	1	1.05mi
18702 E Ridge Rd Hidden Valley Lake, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,999	$1.82	43d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $328 · $3,936/yr

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $329,900 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $329,900 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $329,900 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $329,900 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $329,900 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $329,900 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $329,900 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $329,900 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $329,900 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $329,900 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $329,900 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $329,900 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $329,900 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $329,900 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $329,900 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $329,900 Active 79 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $329,900 Active 78 DOM
18. 2026-04-09
    price $329,900 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    Duplex opportunity! What a wonderful income opportunity on quiet cul-de-sac! This fully rented duplex with satisfied happy long-term tenants is truly a no brainer. Units have been well maintained in mostly original condition and each features 2 bedrooms, 2 baths and a 1 car garage with laundry hook ups. Easy maintenance property is about half driveway, for maximum parking and minimum upkeep.

19. 2026-04-09
    price $329,900 396-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    Duplex opportunity! What a wonderful income opportunity on quiet cul-de-sac! This fully rented duplex with satisfied happy long-term tenants is truly a no brainer. Units have been well maintained in mostly original condition and each features 2 bedrooms, 2 baths and a 1 car garage with laundry hook ups. Easy maintenance property is about half driveway, for maximum parking and minimum upkeep.

20. 2026-03-17
    listed $349,900 Active 396-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    Duplex opportunity! What a wonderful income opportunity on quiet cul-de-sac! This fully rented duplex with satisfied happy long-term tenants is truly a no brainer. Units have been well maintained in mostly original condition and each features 2 bedrooms, 2 baths and a 1 car garage with laundry hook ups. Easy maintenance property is about half driveway, for maximum parking and minimum upkeep.

21. 2026-03-13
    listed $349,900 Active 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    Duplex opportunity! What a wonderful income opportunity on quiet cul-de-sac! This fully rented duplex with satisfied happy long-term tenants is truly a no brainer. Units have been well maintained in mostly original condition and each features 2 bedrooms, 2 baths and a 1 car garage with laundry hook ups. Easy maintenance property is about half driveway, for maximum parking and minimum upkeep.

22. 2009-04-10
    soldstatus $148,000
23. 2009-04-09
    soldstatus $148,000
24. 2008-09-22
    listed $148,000
25. 2007-06-07
    historical
26. 2006-11-13
    listed $379,000
27. 2006-06-30
    soldstatus $320,000
28. 2006-06-30
    soldstatus $330,000
29. 2005-10-05
    listed $329,900
30. 1990-07-16
    soldstatus $119,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,862 · $239/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,862 · $239/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 35 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,592
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,480
• − Property taxes: −$2,862
• − Insurance: −$6,768
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,087
• − Management: −$3,087
• − HOA: −$3,936
• − Depreciation: −$9,597
• Taxable loss: −$9,226
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,214
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,625/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middletown Unified
• NCES district ID: 0624750
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,451
• Composite: 28.92/100
• National rank: #6632
• State rank: #291 of 517 in CA

Livability — Hidden Valley Lake

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #785
• US rank: #22539

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hidden Valley Lake, CA
• City population: 5,721
• Population (ZIP): 5,721

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Current HPI: 191.4165
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+177.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $329,900 CRMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $329,900 BAREIS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $349,900 BAREIS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $349,900 CRMLS
• 2009-04-10 Sold (MLS) $148,000 CRMLS
• 2009-04-09 Sold (Public Records) $148,000 Public Records
• 2008-09-22 Listed $148,000 CRMLS
• 2007-06-07 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2006-11-13 Listed $379,000 CRMLS
• 2006-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $330,000 Public Records
• 2006-06-30 Sold (MLS) $320,000 CRMLS
• 2005-10-05 Listed $329,900 CRMLS
• 1990-07-16 Sold (Public Records) $119,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,862 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.