12944 Walsh Ln

Drum Point, MD 20657

$419,000D-

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,971 sqft · Built 2000 · SingleFamily · Active · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,275/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,197
• Tax + insurance: −$605
• HOA: −$14
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$688
• Net cashflow: $-229/mo
• Annual: $-2,750/yr
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.34%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $117,320

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $419k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-229 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $379k (9.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $328k (21.8% below list).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($406k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $328k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#286 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Calvert County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #5 of 24 in MD (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 174 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 101 units permitted in Calvert County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.