12944 Walsh Ln · Drum Point, MD 20657

$419,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,971 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 2000 9,975 sqft lot $141/sqft · 10% below area Est $466k · 10% under $14/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a great investment? With a little bit of love, this home could be exactly what you are looking for! This fully brick home offers so much more than a flat backyard, 3 fully finished levels and great tile updates. The 5 spacious bedrooms throughout this home and the 3 generously sized bathrooms, will give you enough space for everyone! Real hardwood floors greet you at the front door and immediately your eyes go to the wood burning fireplace, bringing you a real warm and comforting feeling. The large, eat-in, kitchen has granite counters, stainless steel appliances and real tile floors. The finished basement is a great work from home space, movie room or use it for extra storage! Wait until you walk upstairs to be WOW-ed by the gigantic owner’s suite. There are two laundry hook ups – one upstairs and one in the basement. Don’t let this one slip through your fingers…at a below market value price, this one is going to go quick! Being sold as-is. * * OFFER DEADLINE SET FOR SATURDAY AT 9PM * *

Key facts

• 9,975 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 2000

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Ownership is fee simple; Total below-grade area includes finished and unfinished space
• HOA & community: HOA fee $172 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport for 2 vehicles; Gravel driveway
• Utilities: Electric service for heating, cooling and hot water; Well water; On-site septic
• Home design: Detached property; Brick construction; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick exterior; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Well water; On-site septic; Above-grade and below-grade structures

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level; Two bedrooms on the upper level; One bedroom on the lower level
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms (one on main level, one on upper level, one on lower level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Electric hot water
• Interior features: Has one fireplace; Basement with connecting stairway, heated and improved

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $419k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-229 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $379k (9.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $328k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $328k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#286 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Calvert County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #5 of 24 in MD (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 174 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 101 units permitted in Calvert County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($406k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $327,523 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.34%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $465,562
• List price: $419,000
• Delta: -10.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
422 Overlook Dr	0.57mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,788 (-6%)	0mo	$450,000	$161	56
454 Buckler Dr	0.45mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,674 (-10%)	3mo	$405,000	$151	55
194 Harbor Dr	0.41mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,722 (-8%)	10mo	$1,100,000	$404	53
251 Cove Dr	0.23mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,579 (-13%)	9mo	$415,000	$161	53
484 Lake Dr	0.53mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,657 (-11%)	0mo	$475,000	$179	52
357 Overlook Dr	0.47mi	5/4.0	3,358 (+13%)	8mo	$1,050,000	$313	46
479 Cardinal Dr	0.56mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,800 (-6%)	12mo	$390,000	$139	45
337 Overlook Dr	0.44mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,381 (+14%)	20mo	$1,512,500	$447	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-82,490
• Equity at exit: $62,474

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-90,621
• Equity at exit: $36,227

Cash invested: $117,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20657

• Home prices YoY: -7.1%
• Active inventory: 174
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,275 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,197
• Tax from tax record: −$431 /mo · $5,169/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$14
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$688
• Net cashflow: $-229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,565

Max offer price $378,518

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,750
• Closing costs: $12,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12995 Barreda Blvd Unit 1520893P Lusby, MD	4.0	3.0	1991	$8,400	$4.22	21d	1	0.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $14 · $168/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $419,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $419,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $419,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $419,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $419,000 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $419,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $419,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $419,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $419,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $419,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $419,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $429,900 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $429,900 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-08
    listed $429,900 Active 1109-char remark
15. 2026-04-28
    historical $429,900 1109-char remark
16. 2022-04-29
    soldstatus $365,000
17. 2022-04-26
    soldstatus $365,000 Closed 1041-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1041 chars)

    Looking for a great investment? With a little bit of love, this home could be exactly what you are looking for! This fully brick home offers so much more than a flat backyard, 3 fully finished levels and great tile updates. The 5 spacious bedrooms throughout this home and the 3 generously sized bathrooms, will give you enough space for everyone! Real hardwood floors greet you at the front door and immediately your eyes go to the wood burning fireplace, bringing you a real warm and comforting feeling. The large, eat-in, kitchen has granite counters, stainless steel appliances and real tile floors. The finished basement is a great work from home space, movie room or use it for extra storage! Wait until you walk upstairs to be WOW-ed by the gigantic owner’s suite. There are two laundry hook ups – one upstairs and one in the basement. Don’t let this one slip through your fingers…at a below market value price, this one is going to go quick! Being sold as-is. * * OFFER DEADLINE SET FOR SATURDAY AT 9PM * *

18. 2022-04-15
    status Pending 1041-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1041 chars)

    Looking for a great investment? With a little bit of love, this home could be exactly what you are looking for! This fully brick home offers so much more than a flat backyard, 3 fully finished levels and great tile updates. The 5 spacious bedrooms throughout this home and the 3 generously sized bathrooms, will give you enough space for everyone! Real hardwood floors greet you at the front door and immediately your eyes go to the wood burning fireplace, bringing you a real warm and comforting feeling. The large, eat-in, kitchen has granite counters, stainless steel appliances and real tile floors. The finished basement is a great work from home space, movie room or use it for extra storage! Wait until you walk upstairs to be WOW-ed by the gigantic owner’s suite. There are two laundry hook ups – one upstairs and one in the basement. Don’t let this one slip through your fingers…at a below market value price, this one is going to go quick! Being sold as-is. * * OFFER DEADLINE SET FOR SATURDAY AT 9PM * *

19. 2022-03-20
    historical Active Under Contract 1041-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1041 chars)

    Looking for a great investment? With a little bit of love, this home could be exactly what you are looking for! This fully brick home offers so much more than a flat backyard, 3 fully finished levels and great tile updates. The 5 spacious bedrooms throughout this home and the 3 generously sized bathrooms, will give you enough space for everyone! Real hardwood floors greet you at the front door and immediately your eyes go to the wood burning fireplace, bringing you a real warm and comforting feeling. The large, eat-in, kitchen has granite counters, stainless steel appliances and real tile floors. The finished basement is a great work from home space, movie room or use it for extra storage! Wait until you walk upstairs to be WOW-ed by the gigantic owner’s suite. There are two laundry hook ups – one upstairs and one in the basement. Don’t let this one slip through your fingers…at a below market value price, this one is going to go quick! Being sold as-is. * * OFFER DEADLINE SET FOR SATURDAY AT 9PM * *

20. 2022-03-16
    listed $324,000 Active 1041-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1041 chars)

    Looking for a great investment? With a little bit of love, this home could be exactly what you are looking for! This fully brick home offers so much more than a flat backyard, 3 fully finished levels and great tile updates. The 5 spacious bedrooms throughout this home and the 3 generously sized bathrooms, will give you enough space for everyone! Real hardwood floors greet you at the front door and immediately your eyes go to the wood burning fireplace, bringing you a real warm and comforting feeling. The large, eat-in, kitchen has granite counters, stainless steel appliances and real tile floors. The finished basement is a great work from home space, movie room or use it for extra storage! Wait until you walk upstairs to be WOW-ed by the gigantic owner’s suite. There are two laundry hook ups – one upstairs and one in the basement. Don’t let this one slip through your fingers…at a below market value price, this one is going to go quick! Being sold as-is. * * OFFER DEADLINE SET FOR SATURDAY AT 9PM * *

21. 2019-03-27
    soldstatus $270,000
22. 2019-03-25
    soldstatus $259,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Awesome 4/5 bed 3 bath home with huge master suite with it's own fireplace, fully finished basement, new carpet, big kitchen with new appliances, fully renovated bathrooms, and all new paint and fixtures througout

23. 2019-02-16
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Awesome 4/5 bed 3 bath home with huge master suite with it's own fireplace, fully finished basement, new carpet, big kitchen with new appliances, fully renovated bathrooms, and all new paint and fixtures througout

24. 2019-02-16
    price $280,000

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Awesome 4/5 bed 3 bath home with huge master suite with it's own fireplace, fully finished basement, new carpet, big kitchen with new appliances, fully renovated bathrooms, and all new paint and fixtures througout

25. 2019-02-02
    listed $265,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    Awesome 4/5 bed 3 bath home with huge master suite with it's own fireplace, fully finished basement, new carpet, big kitchen with new appliances, fully renovated bathrooms, and all new paint and fixtures througout

26. 1990-07-19
    soldstatus $76,000
27. 1987-08-21
    soldstatus $60,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,169 · $431/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,169 · $431/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,303
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,471
• − Property taxes: −$5,169
• − Insurance: −$2,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,144
• − Management: −$3,144
• − HOA: −$168
• − Depreciation: −$12,189
• Taxable loss: −$10,077
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,418
• After-tax cash flow: $-331/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Calvert County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400150
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $94,392
• Composite: 33.27/100
• National rank: #5511
• State rank: #5 of 24 in MD

Livability — Drum Point

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #286
• US rank: #14756

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Drum Point, MD
• County: Calvert County · 33,451 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 20,699
• Household income: $115,748
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 136.0

Population outlook (Calvert County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,825 people
• By 2030: 96,197 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 96,954 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 94,628 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 91,576 · -3.4%
• By 2100: 83,431 · -12.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 15% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Calvert

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.5% · R 54.5% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.3pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: R+5.6 2016: R+18.4 2012: R+8.2 2008: R+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -20.88%
• Current HPI: 274.4909
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+590.3% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $419,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $429,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-28 Coming Soon $429,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $365,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-26 Sold (MLS) $365,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-04-15 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-03-20 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-03-16 Listed $324,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-03-27 Sold (Public Records) $270,000 Public Records
• 2019-03-25 Sold (MLS) $259,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-02-16 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-02-16 Price Changed $280,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-02-02 Listed $265,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1990-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records
• 1987-08-21 Sold (Public Records) $60,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,169 · +11.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.