11409 204th St

New York, NY 11412

$780,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,888 sqft · Built 1950 · MultiFamily · Pending · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,922/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,090
• Tax + insurance: −$666
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,244
• Net cashflow: $-78/mo
• Annual: $-938/yr
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.06%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $218,400

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $780k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-78 ($-938/yr) — negative. Per door: $-39/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $766k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $592k (24.1% below list).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($757k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $592k (24.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $23k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $265k; list at $780k implies a 194% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 54% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?